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Archive of posts filed under the Political Science category.

Peter Ellis on Forecasting Antipodal Elections with Stan

I liked this intro to Peter Ellis from Rob J. Hyndman’s talk announcement: He [Peter Ellis] started forecasting elections in New Zealand as a way to learn how to use Stan, and the hobby has stuck with him since he moved back to Australia in late 2018. You may remember Peter from my previous post […]

Donald J. Trump and Robert E. Lee

The other day the president made some news by praising Civil War general Robert E. Lee, and it struck me that Trump and Lee had a certain amount in common. Not in their personalities, but in their situations. Lee could’ve fought on the Union side in the Civil War. Or he could’ve saved a couple […]

(from Yair): What Happened in the 2018 Election

Yair writes: Immediately following the 2018 election, we published an analysis of demographic voting patterns, showing our best estimates of what happened in the election and putting it into context compared to 2016 and 2014. . . . Since then, we’ve collected much more data — precinct results from more states and, importantly, individual-level vote history records […]

What are some common but easily avoidable graphical mistakes?

John Kastellec writes: I was thinking about writing a short paper aimed at getting political scientists to not make some common but easily avoidable graphical mistakes. I’ve come up with the following list of such mistakes. I was just wondering if any others immediately came to mind? – Label lines directly – Make labels big […]

Abortion attitudes: The polarization is among richer, more educated whites

Abortion has been in the news lately. A journalist asked me something about abortion attitudes and I pointed to a post from a few years ago about partisan polarization on abortion. Also this with John Sides on why abortion consensus is unlikely. That was back in 2009, and consensus doesn’t seem any more likely today. […]

My talks at the University of Chicago this Thursday and Friday

Political Economy Workshop (12:30pm, Thurs 23 May 2019, Room 1022 of Harris Public Policy (Keller Center) 1307 E 60th Street): Political Science and the Replication Crisis We’ve heard a lot about the replication crisis in science (silly studies about ESP, evolutionary psychology, miraculous life hacks, etc.), how it happened (p-values, forking paths), and proposed remedies […]

“Did Jon Stewart elect Donald Trump?”

I wrote this post a couple weeks ago and scheduled it for October, but then I learned from a reporter that the research article under discussion was retracted, so it seemed to make sense to post this right away while it was still newsworthy. My original post is below, followed by a post script regarding […]

“MRP is the Carmelo Anthony of election forecasting methods”? So we’re doing trash talking now??

What’s the deal with Nate Silver calling MRP “the Carmelo Anthony of forecasting methods”? Someone sent this to me: and I was like, wtf? I don’t say wtf very often—at least, not on the blog—but this just seemed weird. For one thing, Nate and I did a project together once using MRP: this was our […]

Scandal! Mister P appears in British tabloid.

Tim Morris points us to this news article: And here’s the kicker: Mister P. Not quite as cool as the time I was mentioned in Private Eye, but it’s still pretty satisfying. My next goal: Getting a mention in Sports Illustrated. (More on this soon.) In all seriousness, it’s so cool when methods that my […]

Horse-and-buggy era officially ends for survey research

Peter Enns writes: Given the various comments on your blog about evolving survey methods (e.g., Of buggy whips and moral hazards; or, Sympathy for the Aapor), I thought you might be interested that the Roper Center has updated its acquisitions policy and is now accepting non-probability samples and other methods. This is an exciting move […]

When we had fascism in the United States

I was reading this horrifying and hilarious story by Colson Whitehead, along with an excellent article by Adam Gopnik in the New Yorker (I posted a nitpick on it a couple days ago) on the Reconstruction and post-Reconstruction era in the United States, and I was suddenly reminded of something. In one of the political […]

That illusion where you think the other side is united and your side is diverse

Lots of people have written about this illusion of perspective: The people close to you look to be filled with individuality and diversity, while the people way over there in the other corner of the room all look kind of alike. But widespread knowledge of this illusion does not stop people from succumbing from it. […]

The Arkansas paradox

Palko writes: I had a recent conversation with a friend back in Arkansas who gives me regular updates of the state and local news. A few days ago he told me about a poll that was getting a fair amount of coverage. (See also here, for example.) The poll showed that a number of progressive […]

Continuing discussion of status threat and presidential elections, with discussion of challenge of causal inference from survey data

Last year we reported on an article by sociologist Steve Morgan, criticizing a published paper by political scientist Diana Mutz. A couple months later we updated with Mutz’s response to Morgan’s critique. Finally, Morgan has published a reply to Mutz’s response to Morgan’s comments on Mutz’s paper. Here’s a passage that is of methodological interest: […]

Automatic voter registration impact on state voter registration

Sean McElwee points us to this study by Kevin Morris and Peter Dunphy, who write: Automatic voter registration or AVR . . . features two seemingly small but transformative changes to how people register to vote: 1. Citizens who interact with government agencies like the Department of Motor Vehicles are registered to vote, unless they […]

What’s the upshot?

Yair points us to this page, The Upshot, Five Years In, by the New York Times data journalism team, listing their “favorite, most-read or most distinct work since 2014.” And some of these are based on our research: There Are More White Voters Than People Think. That’s Good News for Trump. (Story by Nate Cohn. […]

Ballot order update

Darren Grant writes: Thanks for bringing my work on ballot order effects to the attention of a wider audience via your recent blog post. The final paper, slightly modified from the version you posted, was published last year in Public Choice. Like you, I am not wedded to traditional hypothesis testing, but think it is […]

Changing racial differences in attitudes on changing racial differences

Elin Waring writes: Have you been following the release of GSS results this year? I had been vaguely aware that there was reporting on a few items but then I happened to run the natrace and natracey variables (I use these in my class to look at question wording), they are from the are we […]

Parliamentary Constituency Factsheet for Indicators of Nutrition, Health and Development in India

S. V. Subramanian writes: In India, data on key developmental indicators that formulate policies and interventions are routinely available for the administrative units of districts but not for the political units of Parliamentary Constituencies (PC). Members of Parliament (MPs) in the Lok Sabha, each representing 543 PCs as per the 2014 India map, are the […]

Research topic on the geography of partisan prejudice (more generally, county-level estimates using MRP)

1. An estimate of the geography of partisan prejudice My colleagues David Rothschild and Tobi Konitzer recently published this MRP analysis, “The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: A guide to the most—and least—politically open-minded counties in America,” written up by Amanda Ripley, Rekha Tenjarla, and Angela He. Ripley et al. write: In general, the most politically […]