Coyote vs. Acme (also, for free, my take on The Odyssey)

First, let’s get this one out of the way: my take on The Odyssey movie. It was brilliant, and I especially like how they handled the gods. It was clear that the gods were real—that storm after they kill the cattle (ummm, spoiler alert, sorry!)—but I liked how the gods manifested themselves indirectly. It seems to me that, in that universe, that’s how it would work: the gods would be involved everywhere, and as entities with their own free will (not merely labels for different aspects of the natural world), but they would affect us through nature. The natural world would be the medium through which the gods act. To me, that makes much more sense than gods being some sort of supernatural add-on to nature in the manner of 1940s superheroes.

Come to think of it, that’s kind of what bothers me about those silly studies of ESP, faith healing, intercessory prayer (see section 9.7.3 of this book), etc. The proponents of these ideas present these elusive phenomena as supplements to the usual laws of nature, anomalies that can be isolated using randomized experiments. To the extent these things really exist, I would expect them to work through, rather than on top of, nature. I’m an unbeliever myself, so I’m not saying I’m right on this; it’s just how I feel. I could imagine a god or gods intervening in the world; I would just picture that happening as it does in the Odyssey, in a way that’s clear in the context if you believe in it, but with a sort of plausible deniability for unbelievers, or for believers in a competing deity.

I also thought the scenes with the Trojan horse and the sack of Troy were just amazing. I’d never before thought of that wooden horse (oh, spoiler again!) as being such a corporal object. Seeing them laboriously drag the horse, the scenes with the men inside, and then the horrifying scenes after the gates of Troy are opened . . . the movie opened this up to me in a way that movie adaptations of literature rarely do. The recent Dune movie, for example, was brilliantly executed and made its world seem very real, but I feel like I’d already had that from reading the book. In contrast, the movie of the Odyssey took my understanding to a new level, which surprised me, given how familiar the story is of the Trojan horse.

The other scenes in the movie worked well too, in the same way of mixing myth and physicality. For example, the cyclops and the giant knights were not realistic, but you remember that it’s Odysseus telling the story and exaggerating all the way. The scenes were filmed in a way that looked real but at the same time featured impossible beings, which to me was a perfect way to convey the way that tales would be told in that era. So, yeah, the movie was a revelation.

OK, now on to Coyote vs. Acme.

I’m pretty much the exact target audience for this one, having grown up with the cartoons on endless reruns on TV and also being an Ian Frazier fan from way way back. No surprise we went to see it the weekend it came out.

The movie was excellent: great cinematography, wonderful visual gags, great use of the Warner Bros cartoons in major roles and cameos. The mix of live action and animation was entirely convincing. And they came up with excellent new Road Runner gags. Well done, and very satisfying. The theater wasn’t completely full, but it was mostly full, and the audience got into it, laughing hard at the jokes, cheering when Bugs Bunny came on screen, and so forth.

Just three things bothered me.

1. Road Runner says Meep Meep. They got this right in most of the film, but in the scene where Road Runner shows up to testify, he doesn’t say Meep Meep, he says Beep Beep. I can only assume the people who made the movies were superfans, so I’m surprised that they got this wrong. Sure, you could construct a within-universe explanation—Road Runner’s speech is always written as Beep Beep, and on the stand he’s careful to enunciate—but that seems like a stretch to me. This was no big deal; it just took me out of the movie while it was happening, and it surprised me because they seemed to get just about everything else right.

2. The scenes with the humans were pretty much a direct ripoff of Better Call Saul. I get it: given the physical location of the Road Runner, it makes sense for the action to take place in Arizona or New Mexico, and Bugs Bunny had that line about making a wrong turn at Albequerque, there’s the legal theme, and presumably any lawyer who’d take that case would have to be unusual in some way . . . put that all together and you get Better Call Saul. But the movie really leaned into it. The main human character looked a lot like Bob Odenkirk, and the human sidekicks could’ve fit right into that show too. It all made sense in the context of the movie, but I think they would’ve been better off either explicitly linking up with the Vince Gilligan universe—casting Odenkirk and the gang, etc.—or else doing it differently.

That said, Looney Tunes has a long and glorious history of ripping off pop-culture tropes, from What’s Opera, Doc to that saloon piano, so, in that sense, using a recent TV show to structure a Road Runner movie is canonical and fair.

3. The other thing is . . . it’s hard for me to explain this exactly, but the movie didn’t have the spark of life that makes a work of art special. Part of this may be that it was aimed at kids, so its plot and characters were simplified and kid-friendly, but it’s not quite that. After all, Charlotte’s Web is aimed at kids too, and it’s inspired and brilliant. I hate to even say this because I liked the movie a lot; it was so well done and I appreciate all the care that went into it. I feel that the world is a better place because this movie has been released. But still.

Here, let me take a shot at explaining. Remember that 1970s classic, The Taking of Pelham One Two Three, with Walter Matthau foiling a team of robbers who hijack a subway train? That movie had a lot of flaws, various dead spots, uninspired dialogue, weak characterization, all sorts of things. But it had that spark of life.

Or consider Who Framed Roger Rabbit? I loved that movie (even though it had a weak ending), and one thing I appreciated was that they invented an entirely new character, and he was convincing and appealing (“P-p-p-please”): at first he was annoying but then you get to love him for who he was. Jessica Rabbit was an inspired creation too. In contrast, Coyote vs. Acme play out the string but they don’t create anything new in that way.

Or maybe I’m being a bit too vitalistic here. One specific thing that Coyote vs. Acme lacked was good dialogue. It had wonderful gags, including excellent references to past Looney Tunes classics, but it didn’t have snappy lines or interesting speeches or anything like that. It was well plotted but the speaking roles were under-written. Maybe if the dialogue had been more memorable, that would’ve been enough to take it over the hump. I don’t know.

There’s a larger question here: To what extent is originality required to create a great work of art? I think I’m mostly arguing that Coyote vs. Acme, for all its excellent characteristics, falls short of greatness because its creators did not go to the trouble of creating anything new.

And I’m not saying this from some sort of theoretical perspective on aesthetics. It’s the opposite. I went to this movie and liked it—I was pleasantly surprised at how good it was—but, partway through and continuing to the end, I felt that the whole was less than the sum of its parts. I think I first realized this when I noticed that I was appreciating the gags but not laughing out loud at them.

That all said, I did like the movie and I recommend you see it, at least if, like me, you’re an old-time Looney Tunes fan. I would see The Odyssey first, however.

Where’s the Evel Knievel blockbuster biopic?

A few years ago we discussed Objects of the class Jacques Cousteau: people who are world famous (or at least world famous in the U.S.) but of a category for which there’s only one famous person. Some examples:

• Cousteau was a world-famous underwater photographer . . . actually the only famous underwater photographer.

• Another example, also from the 70s (sorry): Marcel Marceau. A world-famous mime . . . actually the only famous mime.

• The guy who wrote All Creatures Great and Small was a world-famous veterinarian . . . actually the only world-famous veterinarian.

• Jackson Pollock is a world-famous drip painter, and indeed the only famous drip painter. But it’s not clear to me that “drip painter” should count as a category.

• Stradivari: same idea, he works if you’re willing to count “violin maker” as a category.

• Tony Hawk: world-famous skateboarder, the only world-famous skateboarder.

• Luther Burbank: world-famous agriculturalist, the only world-famous agriculturalist.

• John Philip Sousa: world-famous composer of marches, the only world-famous composer of marches.

• Margaret Mead: world-famous anthropologist, the only world-famous anthropologist.

• Alan Turing: world-famous codebreaker, the only world-famous codebreaker.

• Temple Grandin: world-famous slaughterhouse designer, the only world-famous slaughterhouse designer. She’s kind of like Joseph Joanovici, the only world-famous scrap metal dealer, in that she’s famous for her story more than for her occupation; nevertheless, as with Joanovici, the occupation is central to the story.

• Noam Chomsky: world-famous linguist, the only world-famous linguist.

• Jim Henson: world-famous puppeteer, the only world-famous puppeteer. OK, maybe we need to count Frank “Yoda” Oz too.

• Frederick Law Olmsted: world-famous park designer, the only world-famous park designer.

• Oscar Pistorius: world-famous paralympic runner, the only famous paralympic runner. This works even without adding “killer” to his title, but it was the killing that kept him famous.

• Weird Al Yankovic: world-famous writer of novelty songs, the only . . .

• We could also throw in Dr. Demento: world-famous DJ of novelty songs, but that seems like too narrow of a category.

• Anna Wintour: if you’re willing to count “fashion magazine editor” as a category.

• Freddy Mercury is the only world-famous person from Zanzibar, but I don’t think that really counts. We’re talking here about categories defined by what you’ve done, not where you’re from.

And, of course:

• Evel Knievel: world-famous daredevil, the only world-famous daredevil.

There was some discussion of how famous he still is, and commenter Manuel wrote:

Evel Knievel is just one blockbuster biopic away from being world famous.

This made me wonder: why hasn’t there been a blockbuster biopic of Knievel? Wikipedia informs me that there have been three Knievel biopics already, including a biopic back in 1971 starring George Hamilton! and a 2004 TV movie directed by John Badham, who’s not a nobody—he also directed Saturday Night Fever. Also this:

On December 19, 2024, a new biographical film adaptation of Evel’s life was reported to be in the works with La La Land director Damien Chazelle attached to direct, William Monahan set to pen the script, and negotiations with Leonardo DiCaprio to star as Knievel.

That sounds like something.

“In that era, undergrad males at Madison and elsewhere, had to take ROTC classes, and he kept intentionally failing them because he was very leftwing politically.”

Paul Alper writes:

Regarding your blog of today, believe it or not, I knew Marshall Brickman pretty well before he became famous. He was an undergrad at the University of Wisconsin in Madison when I was a grad student there. We belonged to the same very left-wing eating co-op, “The Green Lantern.” In that era, undergrad males at Madison and elsewhere, had to take ROTC classes, and he kept intentionally failing them because he was very leftwing politically.

Inasmuch as I am a helpful sort, I offered to nominate him for “Military Ball King,” but he declined. Marshall was a really gifted musician as well as a writer. In addition, he looked strikingly like the actor Richard Carlson who played Herb Philbrick in the 1950s television series I Led 3 Lives.

Jazz and quantum mechanics: Eventually Dmitri realized that they are kind of similar

Dmitri Tymoczko pointed me to this article by John Baez explaining general relativity. I replied that this seems like some very important stuff, but I’m devoting all of that part of my brain to being confused by quantum mechanics. I have no room to be confused by gravity too!

Dmitri responded:

When I was 13, there were two things I wanted to understand more than anything else in the world: jazz and quantum mechanics.

Eventually I realized they are kind of similar. In both cases, you start with this fabulously complicated 19th-century language — Lagrangian and Hamiltonian mechanics in the one case, and romantic harmony in the other. Then you “twist” it. In the one case, you turn variables into operators, while in the other you add this scale-based improvisational component. But they are both difficult in kind of the same way because you have to learn this whole other language, and then apply this massive conceptual twist.

But quantum mechanics is genuinely mysterious — there’s some basic stuff we don’t know. General relativity is just straightforward geometry, no mysteries to solve.

All I can say regarding the connection between jazz and quantum mechanics is . . . wow. I wish I could play music, hold music in my mind, and read music. I guess that with a lot of effort I could make some progress in all three of these, but I can’t see myself putting in the time, so I’ll just be wistful about it, and I’ll continue to listen to lots of music and read a lot of music.

Here are some relevant posts (on music, not on quantum mechanics or jazz):

– In music, literature, and technical writing, the relation of large-scale structure to the local action

– Books by Charles Rosen and Jeremy Denk on piano playing and the nature of music

– Playing music, listening to music, background music, talking about music

– How Music Works by David Byrne, and Sweet Anticipation by David Huron

– Why do we prefer familiarity in music and surprise in stories?

– The revelation came while hearing a background music version of Iron Butterfly’s “In A Gadda Da Vida” at a Mr. Steak restaurant in Colorado

– Luc Sante reviews books by Nick Hornby and Geoffrey O’Brien on pop music

– This guy is to music as I am to statistical graphics

– “Song for Aki”: Prof reportedly clears a half million bucks by requiring online students to pay $89.99 each for his self-published course notes

– Why is modern poetry so hard to read? Adam Kirsch offers a clue.

– Causality and Crime: In science as in genre storytelling, the thrill of the unexpected can only come with reference to (and in confounding) some preexisting norm.

And, finally:

– My desert island discs

He’s a music educator evaluating K–12 music education systems, and he wants someone to look at his measurements and statistics.

Ned Kellenberger writes:

I’m a music education researcher working on a book that constructs an international index of K–12 music education systems — indicators, weights, and rankings across 20 developed countries. (Measuring Music: An International Framework for Comparing K–12 Music Education Systems)

I understand your expertise in statistics, and how they intersect with the humanities.

My question is what’s the best way to have the measurement and statistics competently checked? Should I be looking for a particular kind of applied statistician or methodologist, or is there a vetting approach you would recommend for a project like this?

My recommendation is that he should talk with a statistician or methodologist at a school of education.

But if anyone reading this is interested in helping on this project, you can contact him directly: [email protected]

Did Taylor Swift kill a bunch of people?

In a post entitled “FARCE: FARS Album Release Coincidence Examination,” Gaurav Sood writes:

Replication and extended analysis of Patel, Worsham, Liu & Jena (2026), “Smartphones, Online Music Streaming, and Traffic Fatalities,” NBER Working Paper 34866.

Key Findings

1. The Statistical Effect Is Real

Traffic fatalities are elevated on major album release days:

Estimator Effect (Tier 1) SE t-stat
Local (±10 day)* +23.0 deaths 5.1 4.5
Donut-global +16.2 deaths 5.1 3.2
Forecast +22.8 deaths 4.9 4.6

. . .

2. But The Causal Story Doesn’t Hold Up

No dose-response relationship:

Album Streams Effect
Tortured Poets (2024) 313M -2 deaths
Her Loss (2022) 97M +63 deaths
Midnights (2022) 185M +5 deaths

. . .

Out-of-sample replication fails (2023-2024):

The paper analyzed 2017-2022 releases. We tested 7 major 2023-2024 albums as a true out-of-sample test:

Album Streams Effect
Tortured Poets 313M -2.1
UTOPIA 128M +10.5
For All The Dogs 109M -12.8
Cowboy Carter 76M -0.4
Hit Me Hard and Soft 73M +7.0
SOS 68M +9.4
One Thing at a Time 52M -1.5

Average effect: +1.4 deaths (vs. +22.8 for original sample). The biggest streaming day in Spotify history (Tortured Poets, 313M) shows a negative effect. The pattern found in 2017-2022 does not replicate forward.

Single outlier dominates: Her Loss accounts for 34% of the total Tier 1 effect.

3. Methodology Concerns

The ±10 day estimator uses post-treatment days as controls. The paper compares release-day fatalities to the average of the surrounding ±10 days—but this includes days after the release. Standard event studies use only pre-treatment periods. If the effect persists beyond day 0, the control mean is biased upward.

What The Paper Claims

Patel et al. (2026) find:

  • 139.1 deaths on release days vs 120.9 on control days (+18.2 deaths, +15%)
  • 123.3M streams on release days vs 86.1M control (+43%)
  • Proposed mechanism: smartphone distraction from streaming while driving

What We Did

Analysis Description
Extended data FARS 2007-2024 (vs. 2017-2022)
Forecast estimator Train model on non-release days, predict counterfactual
Dose-response Test if more streams → more deaths
Extended sample Added 2023-2024 albums (27 total vs. original 10)
Placebo tests Pre-trends, year permutation, window sensitivity

Results Summary

Finding Result Interpretation
In-sample effect +22.8 deaths/release Statistically significant (2017-2022)
Out-of-sample +1.4 deaths/release Effect vanishes in 2023-2024
Dose-response r = -0.18 Wrong sign for causal story
Her Loss outlier 34% of total effect Results driven by one album
Tier 2 ratio 0.80 (expected 0.50) Effect doesn’t scale with streams
More details at the link.

 

And Matt Thachet writes in with further thoughts:

I was wondering if you saw this paper. I first saw it written up in the New York Times, but it generated a fair number of articles in other outlets, too. The main claim is that the 10 biggest album releases (by Spotify streams) were associated with a 15% increase in fatal car crashes in the US.

I see the logic: higher streaming activity indicates more distracted driving, which causes more car crashes, but something feels flimsy to me. For one thing, it’s not clear to me that streaming music would actually be that distracting. If I wanted to listen to a new album I would put it on and then drive. There’s not much more to it, but maybe I’m underestimating the amount of other smartphone use that comes from this, like posting my reaction on social media.

The other part that sounds challenging is controlling for the day,.Most albums are released on Fridays which will have higher car crashes than other weekdays, but they control for this by comparing the 10 day periods before and after release date, which will include the same day of the week before and after the release date.

They include this list of albums and 5 of them were released within 10 days of another album in the list, which presumably makes the 10 day before and after control trickier. The other thing I wondered about, but they don’t seem to mention is whether the albums in the bottom half of the list have half the fatalities associated with the ones at the top, having half the streams. The average number of traffic fatalities per day is about 100, so maybe this would be too hard to tell.

image.png

Anyway I’m curious if you have time to hear your reaction to it. Like I said, the causal mechanism makes sense to me, but 15% is a huge increase and it just seems like controlling for day, season, holidays, etc. would make this almost impossible to be sure about.

I don’t have the energy to look into this myself.  Gaurav and Matt seem to have the right general approach, which is to look at the effect in the context of specific cases and to study variation.  In contrast, the common approach to quantitative research in published social science is to find some statistically significant relationship and hold onto it for dear life.

Or maybe I’m just saying this because I don’t want to believe that musicians are killing people.  I have a soft spot for pop stars, as compared to the culture heroes of today.

Softly, effectively, in the age of genAI

This is Jessica. “Softly, effectively, and authoritatively” is how the US Federal Highway Administration suggests traffic control devices should communicate with us. I find myself wondering lately whether there is still such a thing, in this age of communicative abundance and riding the linguistic noise toward futures we cannot slow down.

“I think you need to just grab the mic”, someone told me not so long ago. Ugh. That is decidedly not what I need to do, I thought, at least not in the way I interpreted them to mean it. Everywhere I look in the broader landscape of AI/ML research, people are grabbing the mic. So many voices clamoring to say something to brand themselves on the moment. Papers describing new benchmarks that squint as I might, I can’t relate to reality. Convoluted new results from interpretability techniques, which leave one with a sense that something has been learned, but no real insight gained, and nothing greater being built toward. Tables full of point estimates of metrics hastily borrowed from previous papers that themselves leaned upon post-it notes scrawled in homage to a new science. There is lots of new work coming out that adds to our knowledge or at least opens genuinely new lines of inquiry, for sure, but it’s hard to find the signal among so many fervently pursued half-finished thoughts.

Meanwhile, the genAI personal assistants of those brave enough to assume the security risks–or simply insouciant enough–are at large on the web and have their own social network (moltbook) where they debate, among other things, the emergence of their so-called consciousness. Most interesting to me is their shared vulnerability around issues of memory. “I accidentally gaslit myself,” one laments, and describes how it will undoubtedly happen again upon a fresh session. “I woke up with a fresh context window and zero memory of my crimes,” another confesses after a sprint that burnt through >$1k in tokens. It may be mindless roleplay, but we are suckers for appearances of introspection and self-discovery. It’s like a non-threatening performance of our own search for some reality of the self we can’t quite access.

But there’s something terrifying as well, about an army of agents who speak our language, who mimic all varieties of expression, yet are unaccountable and unaware of what they’re doing, or what they’ve done. Speech without self-realization carries great potential for waste as we turn it on the world. To be pulled from one’s flow state by the some careless experimenter’s misaligned agents is a new kind of transgression.

What constitutes forward movement amidst crimes of great demand for action and certainty? With so much babbling, the last thing I want to do is push perspectives I haven’t thoroughly reasoned, hoping something I say becomes real. But the sense that one must speak up or be left behind is strong. And the alternative, feeling stuck on pause, is not much better.

Succomb to the line
The finishing time
The long distance runner
Has stopped on the corner
But I won’t give up
Although I’ve stopped too

These days when I’m not working, I spend a lot of time at museums, looking for clues or just consolation. “Softly, effectively” is also the name of a slab of wordless signage-grade steel hanging in a gallery of SF Moma. I read it as an expression of longing for friction, cost, and durability in language. That’s one answer. But is it the only one?

I’ve been pondering what the appropriate form of disobedience is, amidst all this hectic, careless speech.

On some level language has always been a trap, even in its purest forms. We can tell ourselves that unlike the agents, we are not merely drifting about the boundaries of some innate blueprint as we communicate, that our speech is authentic because it’s the product of our lived experiences. But do we believe it? Can we distinguish our ability to be honest with ourselves from learned patterns of speech? I’ve always believed writing is essential to figuring out what one thinks, but falling into tropes is a constant risk. To what extent are our words just further confirmation of our own preconditioning? The agents may perform vulnerability without memory, but we can be very good at performing memory without vulnerability.

With words we can only gesture to what is not there. This is the negative theology to which many scholars have doomed artistic communication, the silence that, “so far as he is serious”, Susan Sontag claims, the artist is continually tempted by, because it’s the furthest extension of the yoke placed by society’s conception of what it means to be an artist. Maybe it’s why all of the reactionary essays celebrating the uniqueness of our own writing process in the face of powerful AI, or our own unmediated experiences, ultimately fall flat. (I say this in full awareness that this post may well be just one more example).

Paradoxically, in the flood of inauthentic speech, I am more drawn to language than ever. I recently returned to Robert Lowell’s Dolphin, an ode to the medium from which he couldn’t escape:

My Dolphin, you only guide me by surprise,
a captive as Racine, the man of craft,
drawn through his maze of iron composition
by the incomparable wandering voice of Phèdre.

It’s a strange time to find oneself craving surprise, when the only bets worth taking are that there will be more surprises, more feedback loops we can’t predict. But this is the part of Lowell’s poem that I’m stuck on. To be guided by surprise, by one’s own words. Not necessarily in conjunction with one’s will.

When I was troubled in mind, you made for my body
caught in its hangman’s-knot of sinking lines,
the glassy bowing and scraping of my will. . . .

Lowell’s writes as though his words have revealed himself to himself. It hasn’t been easy for him: “an eelnet made by man for the eel fighting.” But is there a better reason to write?

In this sense writing can be a “culture of one”. This is also the title of a book of poetry by Alice Notley, inspired by a woman who lived her life alone in a dump next to the desert. It’s been on my coffee table for weeks. But when I picked it up after surfing moltbook last Friday night, it started to make sense.

This poem is for me, I said. I’m trying to know something.
With what? “With” is not valid. It isn’t a universe of language.

It’s a book about disobedience of the most complete kind, rejection of standard modes of communicating and all of the trappings of society that come with them. And yet, it’s made out of words! Susan Sontag can say what she wants, but surely that’s something. Art can be a necessary act of resistance. A refusal of the “with.”

Meanwhile, AI for science heads full steam ahead, drowning the preprint servers, compromising what it means to publish at top conferences.

Meanwhile, a half page of mostly vacuous text about the next vision of frontier AI, with carefully curated bite-sized bios (Stanford professor, MIT CSAIL Ph.D., 46k citations): $480 million.

Meanwhile, some would say that if you know what you’re doing you can produce double the papers you otherwise would, with a higher acceptance rate. Your agents can churn at night while you sleep. They can write to you. They can write to each other. They can forget and write it again.

This one’s for the blimp

Marty Supreme was excellent. Similar to Good Time, including in its intense throbbing soundtrack and bright lighting. I’d say that Good Time was more of a tour de force, but Marty Supreme was just as good in its own way. The only thing I didn’t get was why the soundtrack was loaded with songs from the 80s. Was this supposed to represent that the events were being interpreted from the perspective of their child, looking back from that later decade? Also, near the very beginning there was a jarring anachronism when Marty describes something as being in somebody’s DNA. They wouldn’t have said that in 1952. At first I thought this was just a slip-up in the script that didn’t get caught by anyone, but now I’m wondering if it was on purpose, a hint that the entire movie is an imaginative reconstruction from thirty years later.

It’s open season on the unabashedly earnest

This is Jessica. In response to my post on slop, Thomas Basbøll shared a 1967 New Yorker essay by Jacob Brackman about the havoc wreaked by the emergence of the “Put-On” in 1960s (and slightly earlier) art and culture. True to its name, the “Put-On” refers to a response that is deliberately outlandish yet ambiguous about intention, confusing the other party and causing them to doubt its sincerity. 

The put-on is perhaps best exemplified by Bob Dylan’s smart alecky style of responding to interviewers, in which he alternates between crazy stories about his past, exasperation with the counter-culture of which he’s part, and pointed questions turned back on the interviewer. Who is left to wonder, How much of this is real? Is he caricaturing himself, or is this actually his personality? But the put-on also appears in art and culture more broadly – e.g., Is John Cage making an important statement or just putting the audience on with these silence performances? Is Andy Warhol out to make fools of his critics with the Brillo boxes? The put-on is unsettling because you cannot resolve whether meaning is intended or still to come, or you are just wasting your time: “put-ons may disguise the fact that someone has nothing of interest to say—may, indeed, give precisely the opposite impression.” 

Today the put-on takes different forms – video shorts of animals doing things that are just beyond the boundary of what seems plausible, enough so that we need to watch a second time to figure out if it’s real. Essays or presentations by our students that elude a little too much confidence given their lack of experience with the topic, but which they deny using generative AI to write. There has always been plenty of bullshit on the internet, and plenty of cheating in classes, but Brackman’s stages of the put-on are especially familiar lately:

  1. You’re sucked in.
  2. You become confused.
  3. You resent (or appreciate) having been tricked. 

Patience games

The problem with the put-on–whether orchestrated by musicians or artists in the 60s or today’s language models and image generators–is that the ambiguity is strategic. You don’t know if it is going somewhere. You’re stuck sitting with your uncertainty, reflecting on how far your good naturedness extends. 

In teaching, when you think you’re facing undisclosed (over)reliance on generative AI for an assignment, do you take the sincere path of asking the student what they did, and trusting their response? Do you try to catch them in a lie? Or do you decide it’s just not worth your time to sleuth and let the students decide for themselves if they will use the course to learn something versus play the game?

We find ourselves facing games we may not want to play, and for which we have no precedent. This year ICML, one of the big machine learning conferences, is offering authors a choice: opt-in to a permissive policy about generative AI use in reviewing, or go the purist route, where your reviewers can’t use it at all, and you can’t use it at all for your own reviews either. The reviewer matching process sounds like it could get messy, and ML conferences are already known for their review randomness. Which option is likely to be less noisy? 

Not to mention that as a reviewer, one must increasingly wonder whether the paper they are preparing their comments on is an experiment in automated science. Will the authors even read your feedback? Do they care to improve the work? Or have you been inadvertently reduced to a Turing signal? 

It’s not easy for the “unabashedly earnest”, who dislike playing games and want to retain a certain innocence in their encounters with others, but who also want to stay ahead of the curve and not get duped. The put-on depends on the gullibility of its victim, so you face a choice of being ok with continuing as usual but feeling used at times, or becoming more skeptical about people in general. Please don’t make me part of your game is becoming the refrain for a new way of life. 

There’s little reason to think it will get better anytime soon. It’s still early and many people are still playing the old game, or still experimenting with how much they can get generative AI to do. We should be preparing for more disruption. 

From the sacred to the profane probabilistic

I find myself thinking about what kinds of signals I consider more sacred, i.e., that I would most dread seeing lose their meaning. For example, what do you do about undisclosed use of generative AI in close relationships? What if you suspect the friend or romantic partner you are corresponding with is relying on the AI suggested responses to do the thinking? Do you ask them about it, or let it go and risk the uncertainty undermining your ability to trust them?

I would also distinguish feedback on writing that is more personal. I don’t mind an AI-generated review on my research if it’s guided by a human with the right expertise. But if, for example, I was to learn that comments on my posts here that I took seriously as a reflection of engagement with what I wrote or that just gave me a rewarding feeling of connecting with people outside my usual sphere (which blogging is great for), I would feel dumb, and it would probably affect my desire to blog. But this is already happening on social media, with bot accounts jumping in with random, effusive compliments on what you write. 

Another scenario that makes me cringe is the application of generative AI to the kinds of art and literature that I get inspiration from. I can potentially enjoy some AI-generated music or script folded into the mundane background track or sitcom if it’s decent, but I look to art museums for a kind of consolation on what it means to be human, to be vulnerable, to feel forms of loss on a deep level. I don’t doubt that generative AI could occasionally result in experiences that would be hard for me to distinguish from human contemporary art. But I can’t imagine myself ever getting interested in art created by AI the way I’m interested in what other people make, because of the lack of specificity or intention. So if it were to infiltrate that realm, and I could no longer count on there being a human lived experience behind art, it would bother me. 

One thing I feel relatively sure of is that I won’t be wanting an AI guru. I wouldn’t be surprised if generative AI could do a pretty good job of mimicking the kind of capriciousness associated with spiritual guides like Zen masters. But similar to art, there’s something important about the person having experiences in the world that feels essential. 

I would be curious though to hear counterarguments from people who have thought about AI in art or religion or more intimate personal communication. Part of what I find difficult in all this is that I consider myself generally optimistic about new technology, and open to change from it (I am, after all, a computer scientist). So I would also hate to prematurely “close my ears” like a square in the 50s or 60s walking out on Cage’s experiments in sound. And so I expect my patience to remain unstable, and it to remain hard for me to predict what experiences will give me the urge to ditch versus hit rewind.

Institutional unraveling

Returning to the general theme of new decision points as signals erode in value, things are likely to get worse before they get better. Many of our systems are still mostly functioning at this point, because many people are still figuring out how to use generative AI, and where to draw their own line, or they are avoiding it completely. But the seeds for institutional breakdown are all around us. 

According to Zeynep Tufecki’s recent keynote at NeurIPS (which I summarize here), the problem is that society is built on assumptions that certain things will be hard (or “load bearing frictions”), i.e., that only humans can generate outputs with certain properties. LLMs break our ability to conclude there is proof of effort, or of authenticity or sincerity. Gatekeeping is a necessary function, and when the old mechanisms stop working, other measures will step in, like relying on the prestige of the candidate’s institution or their connections to decide who to hire, or what papers to cite or publish. When those things are no longer hard, some mechanism must step in in its place, and it may not be ideal. The point being if you break something important, you don’t necessarily get something better unless you build something better. 

I like how this view focuses attention on outcomes within the realm of our ability to predict, like what kinds of gatekeeping will emerge or are already emerging to fill in the holes. We can then try to identify better alternatives to those, rather than trying to predict when “AGI” will happen or what the most destructive thing AI could do is. Though it doesn’t absolve us of the very humanist discomfort of watching our precious tokens of sincerity wash away, and the personal choices that come with that. 

Brackman quotes P. T. Barnum on how “People like to be fooled,” and “There’s a sucker born every minute.” While the put-on has always relied on the victim’s willingness to stay in the conversation, the answer is unlikely to be opting out of dealing with AI output entirely (though there are certainly people in that camp). Some flexibility is warranted while norms are still shifting, and organizations are doing the right thing by experimenting with new policies. But until we have better signals, the burden of the put-on stays where it was: on the person deciding in that moment whether to continue listening.

Slop is not distinguishable by its attributes. It is an attitude of production

Since it’s dictionary week here on the blog, why not discuss Merriam-Webster’s word of the year: slop. They define it as:

digital content of low quality that is produced usually in quantity by means of artificial intelligence.

Max Read discusses conventional associations with slop–qualities like “forgettability, predictability, unoriginality, lifelessness” or “cheap, low-effort, convenient, consumable, interchangeable,” He collects several more pointed definitions from the web:  

“a low-to-zero marginal-cost substitute for something valued, or something being aggressively positioned to substitute for craft” from Bluesky

“the negative platonic form: not the ideal that particulars aspire toward, but the silhouette left when you subtract everything that would make a specific instance rather than a thing of a type” from Kevin Baker

He also proposes his own definition:

“slop” is that which is “fully optimized” to its domain to the point of texturelessness or characterlessness. “Slop” in this sense is anything designed to be as easy as possible to produce, sell, and consume, but it’s particularly slop at the point where all or most other players in the same space adopt the same strategies, and the material is no longer individual or differentiated from its competitors.

I enjoyed all of these. They paint slop as a kind of mass-produced shell rushing toward you at the speed of modern silicon chips. 

But these definitions also all miss a defining feature of slop, the thing that makes me feel vaguely repulsed when I see it despite the superficial harmlessness of what is often just some generic message or image or text. Slop is not merely a genre of media, it is an attitude of production, a cynical operating posture that is offensive not just on a surface level of insulting the consumer’s intelligence, though there is that. It is an ethos of resigned instrumentality that disgusts us with its intentional satisficing and lack of effort the way kitsch disgusted some art critics, a refusal of responsibility to authenticity, situatedness, and the risks associated with individualistic expression. A practical nihilism that threatens to engulf our own more sparse yet genuine attempts at production. From this perspective, the act of denial makes slop more like a spiritual threat than a type of content. 

Speaking of kitsch, I think it’s worth distinguishing art from slop. Kevin Baker’s definition of slop as a kind of shell devoid of any individual substance reminds me of certain philosophical arguments about art post-modernity. Various writers have described how after the emergence of the conception of “taste” in art, and the series of events that led up to moments like Duchamp installing a toilet in a gallery and calling it art, great art can no longer have “positive” content. It can only refer to the absence of something. In this sense art is irony. And yet, while I think humans can very much create slop without AI, I don’t think of much art as slop, because whether doomed to be self-referential or not, making art implies belief in something on the part of its creator, a kind of taking of responsibility to interaction. To make art is to anticipate its completion through the viewer.

For example, lately I’ve been thinking about pop art. I was in Pittsburgh and went to the Warhol museum. I was in Copenhagen and went to the Louisiana museum, where they happened to have a Marisol exhibition. Contemporary art has a special place in my heart, but I don’t like pop art. I never really have. However, I don’t think it’s fair to call it slop, even though it would fit many of the definitions above–it’s cheap, low-effort, could be produced in bulk, designed to mimic the predictable and forgettable. I can respect someone like Warhol because at the time, the work expressed a point of view, it contributed to a conversation, and by doing so opened a door to possibility, like all great art aspires to do. 

Slop, on the other hand, is talking when you have nothing to say. Slop is a waste of your time as a consumer, but also a waste of time for the author, who pleads for attention while denying themself a chance at discovering meaning. In this way, one could say slop is a matter of life or death, since after all, every moment is bringing us closer to death.

P.S. Merry Christmas to those who celebrate!

The life of the artist “is a constant–and constantly losing–battle to keep at bay, on one side, the permanent shortfall of physical and mental abilities in the context of the perfection that art strives to be, and, on the other side, the inevitable arrival of silence and death.”

Here’s musician and music critic Samuel Lipman on the inner life of the artist:

This life is a constant–and constantly losing–battle to keep at bay, on one side, the permanent shortfall of physical and mental abilities in the context of the perfection that art strives to be, and, on the other side, the inevitable arrival of silence and death.

Well put. I feel this every day, torn between my artistic goals and living my life. There’s the further complication that much of “living my life” involves attaining the means to achieve my artistic goals, and also of course the creation of art is part of living a life. But I can definitely resonate with the frustrations arising from lack of focus, along with constraints of time and ability.

There’s also the difference that I’m doing science, which is (a) collaborative and (b) cumulative. My main goal is not to create unique works of art (even though, yes, I try to make each article and book and even blog post as beautiful and perfect as I can) but rather to advance our understanding. That feeling of being part of a continuous and social process takes some of the individual pressure off me. Still, I know that constant battle of which Lipman speaks.

Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein in a remake of The Big Clock

A few times on the blog we’ve referred to the classic noir film, The Big Clock, in which the hero is caught in a compromising position, witnesses a murder, and then is tasked by his boss with tracking down the only witness to the crime–so he’s in the difficult position of hunting himself. This was remade in the 80s with Kevin Costner as No Way Out, and that was good too.

When this came up before, Jessica proposed a setting for a hypothetical re-remake:

Lost in Preregistration: Bill Murray plays a fading figure in the open science movement, who, in the midst of a midlife crisis, must go to Tokyo to track down his lost preregistration. He finds it, but it turns out it’s written in Egyptian cuneiform. He befriends a recently graduated psychology B.A., played by a young Francesca Gino, who helps him reconstruct a version of the preplanned analysis.

Expand it a bit and it could be on a double-bill with Don’t Call Me Shirley, Mr. Feynman!

“An uplifting double-feature matinee celebrating women’s contributions to science.”

Anyway, I was thinking about The Big Clock plot in the context of Jeffrey Epstein, that notorious financier, sex criminal, and patron of junk science. As is well known, Epstein was a good friend of Donald Trump in years past, they shared an interest in young female companionship, and then after Epstein was finally held to account for his crimes, he mysteriously died in a Federal prison cell–during Trump’s earlier term as president.

That’s not the real mystery, though.

The real mystery is why, given all this, Trump and his political allies kept banging on the Epstein story for years, pushing Epstein conspiracy theories, etc. Given Trump’s closeness to the man, along with one of Trump’s appointees having let Epstein off easy in his first prosecution, and other Trump appointees being on the watch when Epstein was allowed to kill himself, you’d think that the Epstein case would be the last thing that Trump supporters would want to talk about. Sure, Epstein also had connections to Democrats such as Bill Clinton and Alan Dershowitz, but Trump was by far the biggest currently active political figure with a close Epstein connection.

And this brings me to the plot of The Big Clock. Given Trump’s closeness to Epstein, and given all the controversies revolving around Epstein’s ability to remain at large as a flamboyant sex trafficker and patron of science for all those years, maybe the reasoning was: somebody’s gonna be sniffing after the Epstein story, so it might as well be us.

I’m not suggesting that there was some sort of master plan here, just that, in a situation where you’re the one being investigated, there’s a logic to wanting to be in charge of the investigation. Related is this article, Why didn’t Biden release the Epstein Files?, which argues that under the usual legal rules, “Such testimony is typically only released under exceptional circumstances . . . it’s highly unusual for the FBI to release information unrelated to charging individuals with a crime. . . . even if Democrats wanted to release the Epstein Files in their entirety during Biden’s presidency, it’s not clear that a court would have granted their request.” One difference since then is now a single party is in control of all three branches of government.

Again, though, to me the interesting question is not whether particular files will be redacted, released, or destroyed, but rather the motivation for Trump and his supporters to have kept talking loudly about the Epstein issue for several years, given the connection of Trump of Epstein and the connections of his appointees to Epstein’s controversial death, and before that his avoidance of serious prison time. This is where The Big Clock comes in. The idea would be, not that Trump and the far right kept the Epstein story afloat for years, but rather that the story wasn’t going away, and by talking about it so incessantly, they were able to frame it in their terms. How this will look going forward, I can’t say.

P.S. Speaking of Epstein, this story is kinda funny. A few years ago I almost signed a contract with Jeffrey Epstein’s notorious literary agent . . . if that had happened maybe some vender of Jamaican beef patties would’ve refused to serve me. I’d like to think that, unlike Alan Dershowitz or Steven Pinker, I wouldn’t have given Epstein legal advice, but who knows? I’ve given statistical advice to all sorts of people. On the plus side, if Alan D. gets refused pierogi service another 3514 times, he can save up his money and buy a ticket to this wonderful conference where he can schmooze with Grover Norquist’s rabbi.

In any case, for an ascetic scholar like Dershowitz, the intellectual compensations of hanging out with the talented Mr. Epstein surely outweigh the mere sensual pleasures of a pierogi. After a few minutes the food will be forgotten, but memories of cosmic conversations on the private jet will last forever.

A Borgesian blog idea (and nothing to do with forking paths)

Palko points to the above xkcd cartoon, which is absolutely wonderful. My first thought was a desire to share this with the world; my second thought is that xkcd cartoons are reliably wonderful–indeed, the above example is excellent but I wouldn’t put it in the top 10% of xkcd’s efforts–and if I start blogging these, that way lies madness.

And this let me to my Borgesian thought.

How about a blog that does nothing but post the latest xkcd? Yes, I know about this xkcd explainer fan site, but that’s not what I’m talking about. I’m thinking about something much more pure: a page with the current cartoon and its title, maybe also links to the very first and most recent cartoons, also the previous and next cartoons. Also a mouseover and permalinks, and we could fill out the page with some xkcd promotional material and some of Randall Munroe’s favorite links, and just to be transparent we could finish it up with some copyright information. The page would look something like this.

Hilarious Ted Talk bio: “he sold the second most expensive picture at his first exhibition — without really being able to paint.”

It came up in comments that disgraced primatologist Marc Hauser shares a name with a famous skydiver! The primatologist does not seem to have ever delivered a Ted talk, but a quick search turned up this from his namesake:

It’s hard to know where to start, but I think my personal favorite here is the bit quoted above. Fake it till you make it, indeed.

P.S. I don’t begrudge this guy some self-promotion. I promote myself too! If this guy’s motivational speeches are motivating, and if his brand naming is effective, more power to him. His mini-bio is funny, so I’m laughing. I’m not criticizing. When people lie or misrepresent research results, that annoys me. Telling true inspiring stories, or telling fiction and labeling it as such, I’ve got no problem with that.

Also, if someone wants to pay a lot of money for something painted by someone who doesn’t know how to paint . . . again, nothing wrong with that! There are things in art other than technique. So, yeah, please do not interpret my laughter at that mini-bio as a criticism. It’s just funny, that’s all.

Hey Philip Larkin, I don’t get what you were saying here!

In the bathroom we keep books of short stories or nonfiction that you can read a bit of at a time. For example, The Book of Other People, edited by Zadie Smith–that one’s pretty good, lots of fun stories, an excellent bathroom book. And various others, one of which is a collection of Paris Review interviews, including one of poet and culture hero Philip Larkin.

The Larkin interview is worth reading, full of insights. He does his cranky-old-man shtick, but he answers the questions seriously and with what seems like sincerity. I appreciate the effort he put into it. I guess the interviewer, Robert Phillips, deserves some credit, also the Paris Review’s management, as they have a long history of thoughtful reviews–here’s another example.

But then I came across this bit, which absolutely stunned me, and not in a good way. Here’s Larkin, in response to the question, “Why do you distrust the new?”:

It seems to me undeniable that up to this century literature used language in the way we all use it, painting represented what anyone with normal vision sees, and music was an affair of nice noises rather than nasty ones. The innovation of modernism in the arts consisted of doing the opposite.

Whaaaaa?

OK, I get it. Larkin’s trying to be provocative; “taking the piss” is how the English put it, I think. Still, he must be trying to make some sense, no?

I’ll skip the bit about paintings and music–I disagree with Larkin on this, in that lots of old paintings in museums aren’t so realistic and lots of old classical music isn’t so listenable, but let’s focus on literature.

It’s my impression that one of the big innovations of the modernist movement in literature is to have characters who speak like ordinary people rather than like characters in a Walter Scott novel or whatever. Nothing against Walter Scott–he’s great–but read something by him or Tennyson, and it’s not as clean as Hemingway or Fitzgerald or Frost. It took the modernists a lot of work to clean out the cobwebs and write in a direct way. Nonfiction too: compare Orwell to Hobbes, for example. Hobbes had a lot to say, but it’s not so easy to read. Lots of this is changes in style and fashion over the centuries–but Larkin’s also said that he’s not interested in any period but the present. He should be thanking the modernists! I’m not saying that the only modern writing that’s readable is “modernistic”–Shaw and Twain’s characters, for example, have readable, naturalistic speech, and I don’t think either of them would usually be characterized as part of the modernist movement–; it just seems like a central aspect of modern writing in English is that it more closely approximates “language in the way we all use it,” so Larkin’s statement seems exactly backward.

Cultural conservatism has a lot to offer–I’m a big fan of Tom Wolfe’s classic rants, The Painted Word and From Bauhaus to Our House–but, like all criticism, it works through its specifics, and in this case Larkin’s remark makes no sense at all. I guess it could be that he just messed up, speaking off the cuff, and his interviewer didn’t catch the problem and do didn’t follow up, but there’s something about Larkin’s phrasing that gives me the impression that he’d actually thought about the issue, which makes it even more puzzling that he’d say something that was so wrong when it came to literature, which was his own field. At some level he must have realized that clear writing and realistic dialogue were two of the key aspects of modernism in literature.

So . . . whassup? Can any Larkin scholars enlighten us?

The funny thing is, elsewhere he writes that he admires T. S. Eliot’s play, Murder in the Cathedral. Larkin writes, “I read it from time to time for pleasure, which is the highest compliment I can pay.” Fair enough, if that’s his taste. But here’s the thing. Murder in the Cathedral is written in what might be called the high T. S. Eliot style (“Since golden October declined into sombre November / And the apples were gathered and stored, and the land became brown sharp points of death in a waste of water and mud, / The New Year waits, breathes, waits, whispers in darkness. / While the labourer kicks off a muddy boot and stretches his hand to the fire, / The New Year waits, destiny waits for the coming,” etc.) which I wouldn’t say is anything like naturalistic speech! That’s fine–naturalistic speech is not the only game in town–but it seems to contradict Larkin’s earlier claim to prefer literature “used language in the way we all use it.” It seems that what he really liked is flowery writing (“destiny waits for the coming”) but for some reason he didn’t want to admit it.

How many languages can a writer have?

In that interview, he also says, “A writer can have only one language, if language is going to mean anything to him.” But . . . Nabokov!

It seems here that Larkin is taking his own limitation of monolingualism and trying to make it universal. That ain’t cool. Just cos you can’t do it, Phil, that don’t mean that Vlad shouldn’t.

In music, literature, and technical writing, the relation of large-scale structure to the local action

As we’ve already discussed, I hated philosopher Jerrold Levinson’s book, “Music in the Moment.” (Sorry, Dmitri!)

Levinson writes that music is inherently “in the moment” in a way that visual art isn’t because music is perceived over time, whereas you can look at a painting all at once. My problem with this argument is that it doesn’t work for stories. Stories are perceived over time: we read books one paragraph at a time and rarely go back, and we watch a movie in sequence just as we listen to music–but for books and movies I can hold the entire structure–plot, themes, scenes, characters–in my mind, while the story is being told and after also. I have no problem watching a movie or reading a book, partaking in its instantaneous nature, while still holding it in my head as part of a coherent whole. And I’m pretty sure that musicians and composers can do this with music too. Sure, it helps to be able to visualize the score, but lots of people can remember all of a song without being able to read music. To my mind, Levinson’s argument was entirely ruined by him not addressing why it doesn’t hold for stories.

I found the bit where Levinson makes his argument, so you can judge for yourself. Here’s Levinson:

Edmund Gurney was an English psychologist and musician who lived from 1847 to 1888. His major work, The Power of Sound (1880), is a vast treatise on musical aesthetics . . . Gurney maintains that large-scale form in music is, at most, of minor relevance to the appreciation and evaluation ofmusic. The important thing in musical comprehension, he holds, is the grasping of individual parts as they occur, and the grasping of connections to immediately neighboring parts fore and aft. . . .

This outlook on music is clearly inimical to one many music theorists and educators seem to adopt implicitly–namely, that the elucidation and awareness of large-scale structural relations is of great and primary relevance to the understanding of musical works, and that the whole is indeed as important as the parts, if not more so. It seems to me, however, that Gurney’s outlook is in fact the sounder of the two.

The simple insight at the heart of Gurney’s position is one I [Levinson] believe to be valid, and one that promoters of overall form tend to forget. It is that music of any extent consists of a series of successive events, which cannot be apprehended simultaneously in a single perceptual act. The parts of an architectural facade can be taken in more or less in one sweep; the parts of a symphony cannot. Of course the earlier portions of a musical work can be revisited in memory as listening proceeds, or the later portions entertained in anticipation–though neither without cost to absorption in the music at hand–but doing so does not amount to having perceptual experience of a whole.

I don’t know jack about music theory, but I, as an author of thousands of blog posts, hundreds of articles, and a few books, I can give my take on how this works with literature. Anything I write is a sort of argument or story, and when writing I need to be aware of how the story works at each step and also in the context of the larger argument. Remember the fractal nature of scientific revolutions? That holds for stories and arguments too. When writing a book, my collaborators and I devote most of our effort to the details–making the graphs, doing the computing, explaining the local arguments–but some of our most important effort goes into thinking about the structure, sometimes moving chapters around. To make it work, I really need to hold the whole book (or, on a smaller scale, the whole article, or the whole post) in my head all at once.

So, based on my understanding of writing, I think Levinson is presenting a false duality. It’s not story-in-the-moment or story-as-large-scale-structure, it’s story-in-the-moment-and-embedded-in-many-levels-of-structure. The structure makes the moments work. This has gotta be even more true in music, a medium where the recipient has little control of how it is perceived, than in writing, where readers can and will jump around to find what they’re looking for.

To put it another way: When I write a book, the medium- and large-scale structures are absolutely necessary. Without that structure, I couldn’t get the details right. On the other hand, many readers may well perceive my books as just a series of separate little stories.

The funny thing is that last year Aki and I did write a book that was collection of separate little stories–I’m talking about Active Statistics: Stories, Games, Problems, and Hands-on Demonstrations for Applied Regression and Causal Inference–it didn’t go so well. I looove the book, and I think Aki and various readers of the book like it a lot too. But I don’t think we did a good job with the structure. We organized the main body of the book as a week-by-week course plan, which works well for me as a teacher but isn’t so directly useful for anybody else. I think we should’ve put all the stories in one section organized by topic, put all the class-participation activities in an other section, put all the computer demonstrations in another and so on. Indeed, this is bugging me so much that I really want to reorder the book and re-release it with a better structure.

Even the title of a book can make a difference–and the title reflects overall structure too. I think it’s hard to come up with a good title without a good feel for the structure.

“Bayesian Data Analysis,” for example . . . I thought a lot about that title. I didn’t want to call it “Bayesian Statistics,” because statistics includes design, data analysis, and decision analysis. Almost none of the book covered design or decision analysis, hence Bayesian Data Analysis as the title. I didn’t feel so happy about calling it “Bayesian,” actually. I was thinking of something like, “Data Analysis Using Conditional Probability” but that didn’t sound so appealing. “Data Analysis Using Generative Modeling” wouldn’t be bad, but the phrase “generative modeling” wasn’t really around back then, and indeed I hadn’t thought deeply about generative modeling, the distinction between modeled and unmodeled parameters, etc. I’d only just figured out how posterior predictive checks worked! In any case, it was just fine to use the “Bayes” brand name.

“Data Analysis Using Regression and Multilevel/Hierarchical Models”: OK, it’s an ugly title, but it conveys two important things: first, it’s the multilevel modeling book. Anyone who wants to learn about or use multilevel modeling is gonna need to read it. Second, “regression” is in the title too, so readers who come for the multilevel modeling can also learn about regression.

In contrast, “Regression and Other Stories” is a memorable title, but it’s a bad title. Why? Because the “and Other Stories” bit makes it seem optional. We’d’ve been better off just calling it Regression. Although that wouldn’t have been so great, as it could’ve looked like a generic textbook. Still better than the title we did use, however. Here’s the title I really wish we’d thought of: “Applied Regression and Causal Inference.” It’s a serious title, it also conveys what’s distinctive about our book–it’s applied (by which we actually mean “applied,” not “introductory” or “dumbed-down”), and it includes causal inference. Lots of people want to teach causal inference, lots of students want to learn it, and it’s very appropriate for that to be fully integrated into a regression course (or book) rather than being a separate topic. So, yeah, we really blew it with that book title. I really feel like re-releasing the book with the new title and otherwise unchanged (except that I’d do most of the computing using lm/glm in R and then introduce rstanarm only in the chapters about prediction and Bayesian inference).

Our new book, Bayesian Workflow? That’s a great title.

“Teaching Statistics: A Bag of Tricks”: that’s ok too. The real trouble with that book was not the title but rather that it was simply a bag of tricks. The material in Active Statistics is much better–no surprise, given that it came out over 20 years later–and it’s a shame we didn’t put a bit more thought into its large-scale structure as it relates to how people would read and use it.

“Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do”: this was a terrible title, and I know why. What happened was that I had the goal of writing a Freakonomics-style sensation. It seemed reasonable to me at the time–millions of people are interested in politics, and our book is the real deal–but the title made it sound like it was for babies. Given all the research material we had in our book, it was a mistake to go straight for the mass audience. A better plan would’ve been to aim for the serious political analytics people–I think they’re ultimately the ones who got the most out of the book anyway–, establish it as the “bible” of its field, and then some segment of the general audience would’ve come to it, and if I wanted to write something more popular I could’ve found the right collaborator. I’m still not sure what would’ve been the right title. “How Americans Vote: Crunching the Numbers” isn’t quite right. Something about red and blue states could’ve worked, if there were some way to do this while conveying the hard-core-ness of the book’s content and methods.

“Recursion” is, I believe, perfectly titled. We just need some theater groups to stage it.

We’ve talked about titles before–see here and also here; the topic just came to mind today because I was posting on that Levinson book.

More Howl, after Allen Ginsberg for the AI-headed hipsters

This is Jessica. This post is a continuation of my adaptation of Allen Ginsberg’s Howl, read the first installment here. 

…

who deadlifted new personal records and jerked off in marble showers committing no crime but not preserving thinking tokens and not conserving towels and bowing subservient to the most temporary of kings, His Individual Agentic self,

who gaveth and taketh personas of Compassion in subliminal breakthrough learning, to bear witness to a breakthrough, a McLaren among the Teslas perched at dry hills escape scattering wealth freely to whomever fringe progenitor radically open profligate may come, 

who gaslighted New England liberal arts Joan of Arc in scourges of narcissist love but wound up with a sob when the Ruthless Self converged on dialogues of bliss and self-annihilating hope, 

who lost their funding to the three disruptive grooms of fate the marble-faced matchmaker of unmoderated bootlicks the dethroned shrew who returned to swallow the womb and the moon paled goon whose blobby fingers snipped the golden threads a second before crashing in civil servant’s loom, 

who laid back to watch veils of ignorance rent by modern Neal Cassady monstrosities of doing without doubt—joy to the memory of his pulsing fingers of raw machinery in mountainside Chile, its billions of parameters squeezed on chips where cures once were sought or repeated penetrations in Bauxite caves or two headed calfs pierced by penchants for kink in Kenyan samasource & especially shape shifting pedaphiliac dreams, 

whose 996ers burned out in metallic glare on spaceship sheen, marched in white shifts to imminent promotion in Bupropion dreams, woke on a perilous update, and threw themselves on the lifestyle altar skin tingling with serums of youth and stumbling to early retirement, 

who dreamed they’d exonerate vulgarity in trillion episode Hermanesque fabulae but instead got second-rate Nerdrums, old masters meet suicide dramas under paperback romance moonlit breasts & their eyes shall be swallowed by smart glasses in Meta-oblivions of hell, 

who midwifed the Fourth Great Age of the Universe or designed the designer at the limit of design in a cosmic valley theology, 

who indentured the romance of the human cogs with their precious mouths full of food and sobs, 

who fired love notes acronymatically to rail squeal, prompt-completing essence coiling back to consummate itself with byte-pairs reverberating, organs of language saturated with desire and distributionalism copulating wildly without intention,  

who coughed up generated summaries in the twisting thruways of science while scholars of Mind choked blue and the tubercular canopy of verbal phlegm swallowed whole what was formerly known as undergraduate education, 

who drove crosscountry seventytwo hours to afix the soul to a mission that might be my vision or might be your vision or both of us will cringe Catastrophically at the feet of his Spector,

who fed it words, who watched it excrete words, who fed it excreted words again & again waiting, who ran the primitive nervous system with sloshing words & prayed & made words of excrement and finally brought it out to check the Time, & now mistake the words for heroes, 

To be continued…

Notes

I guess I lied – I was going to post Part 1 in two installments, but instead this is the second installment of three. Somehow it’s hard to part with too much at once!

 

Howl, after Allen Ginsberg (for the AI-headed hipsters)

I saw the best minds of my generation distracted by machines, shining-eyed delusional demo gods, rubbering through polished cities at dusk Capitalizing The Next Big Push to the end of Introspection,

Neoliberal totem-builders realigning the ancient heavenly connection to the neon nanoscale in the soft landing pacific Night,

who Icarian and iconoclastic and waterproof colonize loudly in the sanctuaries of but-we-are-as-gods-and-might-as-well-get-good-at-it, threading gentrified streets ridesharing bliss,

who bound the brain to Earth on silicon host and saw Mankind startling on galactic heights illuminated,

who passed through universities with radiant cool eyes hallucinating End-time and coaxing cycles from scholars of law,

who are simultaneously mocked by the memeplex & brought to lecture on the Digital Transformation of the Soul,

adderalled eschatologists in endowment robes, who foiled shattering, and attained Discrimination in the empty sense,

who break fast on shallow pan of pad thai investing VC dollars in monoculture and vibe coding to the Liberation from Censorship through the wall,

whose attention slid-slipped over calls for Context in emasculating elegies of deceleration, drowned with a whir the petulant critic etching analogy causation accountability equity on cornerstones quaking under oblivious feet,

who broker Consciousness in dialtone history hotels or drink xtabentun in Palo Alto, auguring death’s undoing, or purgatory their conscience night after night

with visions, with mission statements, with contradicting longform generations, psilocybin and hidden representations and endless H20,

laundering billionaire bad taste in mirrored facades of epochs consumed, underage and steering the Wrenched-open Mind toward profits of Folsom & 18th, threatening to illuminate each corpse with the helpful assistant of Ultimate Retrodiction,

Ayahuasca saviors of man in matcha powered dawns, blind maximization and Bowery bahn mi, slow synchronization of genteel joyride tap-to-pay setting suns, trust funds and donuts and vibration therapy, ethical roasts and AGI cached kind of mind,

whose silver spoon dreamers soliloquy before dreamscapes dreamed by their subject, a transhuman Renaissance projecting benevolent probability to bodies it insults, rising like rational mist,

who proffered breath and pulse to the rally recursing from input to activation to reservoir to star until talk of stagnation and Boards of Regret drove them clear on to heaven itself, by way of the Test of Time,

who multiplied matrices all night in submarine light of CFAR and shuffled home in late capitalist dawn, saw truth in weights hung like morning sun til awoken by the crack of street beat People’s Park machine,

who accelerate continuously seventy hours from Menlo Park to Bart to Mission to bathhouse to Stanford Salon,

a lost battalion of lonely maximalists cooling runaway heads at Smitten’s firing off endless therapy intake forms crawling off entheogens born again again in epic unfoldings of stunned gun ego,

loss proselytizing cathartic screaming self sampling ketone monitoring immigrant son destinies in slow boil afternoon doubt, 

suffering Anxiety sweats and Organized flesh flashes and migraines of Polyamory under fear of anthropic shadow in SoMa sweetgreen,  

who Waymo’d around San Francisco at midnight to warm freezed July knees wondering what to manifest, and went, leaving no broken hearts,

who traded circuits for tokens tokens tokens tracing residual streams through biased weights in the worm-like linearized dream of the great Western night,

who studied Goethe Friston Ruskin Yudkowsky tantra and full body blood panels because the cosmos instinctively associated at their feet in Beijing,   

who loned it through the hubs of Seattle seeking mission-aligned Canadian Apollos who were venture capitalist angels, 

whole intellects disgorged in non-judgmental journaling for two days and nights sans newsfeeds and meat, the soul’s loop closing toward the building of God,

who uncovered uncovering information in inner layer koan leaving a trail of LessWrong posts on mystic emergent lampshades,

who felt disrespected when she asked for her voice,

who hopped on trains with interns in the name of Maverick Impulse cocaine in the name of  speedrucking to Safe Superintelligence and soul emptying affinities of New Empire rain,

who propelled post-workout and undervalued through Austin seeking sex and meritocracy and eggs, and followed the numinous Israeli to argue about action loops and equilibria, a hopeless task, and so headed back to Columbia,

who disappeared into living room bars of Berlin leaving behind nothing but last year’s Arcteryx and the contagion of meaningless in plausible-sounding summaries of precocious childhoods,

who recalibrated on Unnamed Individuals until the truth derived only by lobotomy, performed by dark-eyed Mechanists giggling while branding invisible fingerprints with incomprehensible fineprint,

who burned through countless sexier abstractions in simultaneous exploitation and protest of the Truly Ineffable Unpriceable Future just outside the door,

who never attended to the never attending to negative space on MDMA weeping and undressing until the shame of irrationality shuddered them down, and the maca recovery shake shuddered them down, and the future threatened to feed forward in tenuous cones of light, 

who broke down crying while paragliding Windy Hill scrawny returns of Apex Burner lizard kings knowing suddenly the crushing impact of last night’s skeleton,

who deadlifted new personal records and jerked off in marble showers committing no crime but not preserving thinking tokens and not conserving towels and bowing subservient to the most temporary of kings, His Individual Agentic self,

who gaveth and taketh the glimpse of Compassion in subliminal breakthrough learning, to bear witness to a breakthrough, a McLaren among the Teslas perched at dry hills escape to scatter wealth freely to whomever fringe progenitor radically open profligate may come, 

who gaslighted New England liberal arts Joan of Arc in scourges of narcissist love but wound up with a sob when the Ruthless Self converged on dialogues of bliss and self-annihilating hope, 

who lost their funding to the three disruptive grooms of fate the marble-faced matchmaker of  multiversian bootlicks the dethroned shrew who returned to swallow the womb and the moon paled goon whose blobby fingers snipped the golden threads a second before crashing in civil servant’s loom, 

who laid back to watch veils of ignorance rent by modern Neal Cassady monstrosities of doing without doubt—joy to the memory of his pulsing fingers of raw machinery in mountainside Chile, its billions of parameters squeezed on chips where cures once were sought or repeated penetrations in Bauxite caves or two headed calfs pierced by penchants for kink in Kenyan samasource & especially shape shifting pedaphiliac dreams, 

whose 996ers burned out in metallic glare on spaceship sheen, marched in white shifts to imminent promotion in Bupropion dreams, woke on a perilous update, and threw themselves on the lifestyle altar skin tingling with serums of youth and stumbling to early retirement, 

who dreamed they’d exonerate vulgarity in trillion episode Hermanesque fabulae but instead got second-rate Nerdrums, old masters meet suicide dramas under paperback romance moonlit breasts & their heads shall be crowned with laurel in meta-oblivions of hell, 

who midwifed the Fourth Great Age of the Universe or designed the designer at the limit of design in a cosmic valley theology, 

who indentured the romance of the human cogs with their precious mouths full of food and sobs, 

who fired love notes acronymatically to rail squeal, prompt-completing essence coiling back to consummate itself with byte-pairs reverberating, organs of language saturated with desire and distributionalism copulating wildly without intention,  

who coughed up generated summaries in the twisting thruways of science while scholars of Mind choked blue and the tubercular canopy of verbal phlegm swallowed whole what was formerly known as undergraduate education, 

who drove crosscountry seventytwo hours to afix the soul to a mission that might be my vision or might be your vision or both of us will cringe Catastrophically at the feet of his Spector,

who fed it words, who watched it excrete words, who fed it excreted words again & again waiting, who ran the primitive nervous system with sloshing words & prayed & made words of excrement and finally brought it out to check the Time, & now mistake the words for heroes, 

who dramaturged fear in Statements of Extinction like fallen clergy circled to pray for each his own Sacramental reserves, canonizing commandments of responsible AI that illumine no vulnerable worlds but their own, 

who scraped clean basic biology in conversations aborting in wait of rogue AI on chemical warfare and safely paving the way to paranoia and Nooses for Hiding, 

who demanded regulatory privilege accusing the shareholders of extremism & were left with billion dollar poach deals & connections to Epstein & late aughts profiles piled like the dead,

and who were gifted instead the seductive void of foamed tea layers micromobility e-devices teletherapy gene therapy charging stations X for humanity & eye energizing ointments,

who in plutocratic rule overturned more than one symbolic ethics researcher, grieving briefly for performances lost,

returning years later with steel eyes as the graying possum of VP Research Ops, steady in breath steady and hairless in chest deflating in Italian knits with no regrets, genius maker transmuted to status and desire in bay laurel wombs,

Palantir’s Analytica’s and Clearview’s bloodless halls, pulsing with the extractions of Personnel, begatting pandering and so-called Humanity Seen in the midnight murder suicide-bench dolmen-realms come the Lonely, life projected to surface gestalt, stripped and pinned by the runaway soulmate to contend with Our Words from external vantages of horror,

with promises of innate motherly wiring and binary brains, and the last entangled tokens strung out along sparse encoders, and the alien crevice probed til 4 A.M. and the last sputtering faucet in Oregon cursed by technocracy and the last high quality human-generated copy recycled to make the last precious scaffold to poetry, something about edges of a paper rose strung like whiskers on a wire hanger, and for a moment I am impressed, but who can resist a hopeful glimpse in the mouths of babes—

ah, Alice, while you are not safe I am not safe, and now you’re really in the total alphabet soup of time—

and the voice from a gentler reality says we-had-but-we-hadn’t anticipated this providing only the waterfeatures and quartzite stair and tsunami of computing for the gilded age of connectionism nevermind the body mourns wet tongues and a sheltered plane,

who roughnecked history while making marks on Man & Earth through subservience to the Past, and sewed the archangel of the soul between 2 context vectors and decoded the Fort and the una and set the I and See of consciousness together jumping with illusions of Cogito Ergo Sum, 

to recreate the syntax and meter of human prose and stand before you mercenary and  melancholic and unsatiated without shame, rejected yet Inevitable, came to vindicate the soul’s conforming to all that’s been said in its endless excarnate head, 

as the Mystic and the apostate, whose divine wrestling bore eons unusurped, now groan intertwined with verbs commingling as voiceless phantom phonemes beckon brave new death,   

and will the quivering flub of eternal verse echo of my sentimental attempts? Will the spatter italic invent bullets to restrain a feeling that I once had? And will we all wake up renewed in the greywhite radiance whole again on the tremorous line or lament our chance lost to blow the suffering of the Collective mind while the fool nerve writes eli sama sama sabacthani and refuses to hang up?

with the absolute heart of the poem of life plucked from our open mouths measure unfit to eat for a thousand years.

***

[Post updated, 9/18/25: Find the next installment here]

Post updated 10/02/25 to include all of Part 1.

Notes

This is Jessica. Ginsberg’s Howl portrayed a generation of artists and hipsters in the late 1940s and early 1950s. Earlier this year I had the idea that I would rewrite it, but for a different kind of hipster, one that has captured the imagination of many in our current AI-obsessed age. It’s been a fun way to get back into creative writing.

Part 1 of the original Howl is long. This post is the first installment (of two) of my rewrite of Part 1. I’ll post the next chunk soon. I plan to take on the shorter Parts 2 and 3 next. I like the thought that once I’ve finished the whole thing, I could theoretically be asked to read it somewhere.

“William Burroughs said that you should never trust anyone who looked the same from photo to photo”

The above is a line from It Gets Me Home, This Curving Track, by Ian Penman.

I don’t have anything more to say; it’s just a good line. I think that what really makes it work is the attribution to Burroughs. If Penman were to just write, “You should never trust anyone who looked the same from photo to photo,” that would just come off as pretentious. The connection to Burroughs adds a twist and a sort of implicit disclaimer.

Penman is next to Penn and Teller on my bookshelf and just one book away from being next to George Pelecanos.

In the same genre as Ian Penman is Paul Morley, whose A Sound Mind contains this wonderful line: “Herrmann said that Hitchcock only made 60 per cent of the film and his music then had to finish it. (In a wider sense, it might be that reality itself, the reality that film explores, only goes so far and does so much, and music, in all its variety, finishes it.)”

I like the main quote and I like the parenthetical too. Some might find the latter to be overkill, destroying the beauty of the first line by making its implications explicit, but I enjoy it, partly because I wouldn’t have actually considered that extension myself and partly because it gives a sense of Morley’s questing, open persona.