Skip to primary content
Skip to secondary content

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Main menu

  • Home
  • Authors
  • Blogs We Read
  • Books
  • Sponsors

Category Archives: Papers

Post navigation

← Older posts

[1994] Discussion of “A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections.”

Posted on January 1, 1994 12:05 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1994] Discussion of “Approximate Bayesian inference and the weighted likelihood bootstrap.”

Posted on January 1, 1994 12:04 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1994] Enhancing democracy through legislative redistricting.

Posted on January 1, 1994 12:03 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1994] Party competition and media messages in U.S. Presidential elections.

Posted on January 1, 1994 12:02 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1994] A unified model for evaluating electoral systems and redistricting plans.

Posted on January 1, 1994 12:01 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1993] Assessing uncertainty in backprojection.

Posted on January 1, 1993 12:05 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1993] Review of “Forecasting Elections.”

Posted on January 1, 1993 12:04 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1993] Discussion of “Bayesian computation via the Gibbs sampler and related Markov chain methods.”

Posted on January 1, 1993 12:03 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1993] Why are American Presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable?

Posted on January 1, 1993 12:02 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1993] Characterizing a joint probability distribution by conditionals.

Posted on January 1, 1993 12:01 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Also see the correction notice from 1999:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1992] Discussion of “Evaluating the accuracy of sampling-based approaches to the calculation of posterior moments.”

Posted on January 1, 1992 12:06 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1992] Discussion of “Maximum entropy and the nearly black object.”

Posted on January 1, 1992 12:05 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:


Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1992] Replication without contrition.

Posted on January 1, 1992 12:04 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1992] Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences (with discussion). Statistical Science.

Posted on January 1, 1992 12:03 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1992] Iterative and non-iterative simulation algorithms. Computing Science and Statistics.

Posted on January 1, 1992 12:02 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1992] A single series from the Gibbs sampler provides a false sense of security. In Bayesian Statistics 4.

Posted on January 1, 1992 12:01 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1991] The precision of positron emission tomography: theory and measurement. Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow and Metabolism.

Posted on January 1, 1991 12:03 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1991] Systemic consequences of incumbency advantage in U.S. House elections. American Journal of Political Science.

Posted on January 1, 1991 12:02 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1991] A note on bivariate distributions that are conditionally normal. American Statistician.

Posted on January 1, 1991 12:01 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

[1990] Topics in image reconstruction for emission tomography.

Posted on January 1, 1990 12:04 AM by Andrew
Reply

Here:

Posted in Papers | Leave a reply

Post navigation

← Older posts
  • Art
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • Bayesian Statistics
  • Causal Inference
  • Decision Analysis
  • Economics
  • Jobs
  • Literature
  • Miscellaneous Science
  • Miscellaneous Statistics
  • Multilevel Modeling
  • Obituaries
  • Papers
  • Political Science
  • Public Health
  • Sociology
  • Sports
  • Stan
  • Statistical Computing
  • Statistical Graphics
  • Teaching
  • Zombies
  1. Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 2:52 PM

    Joshua, you're sounding like a philosopher again. The definition of a distinguishing prediction is: you find a prediction from both…

  2. Raghu Parthasarathy on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 2:42 PM

    I struggle to take seriously a site (from NOAA, no less!) that writes "the total energy released from condensation is…

  3. Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 1:17 PM

    Anonymous - I agree that distinguishing predictions are important, but I think that's exactly the gap I'm pointing to. It…

  4. shira on Survey Statistics: Big Changes in the Times/Siena PollJuly 7, 2026 1:15 PM

    This is so great, Ben ! Thank you for sharing. Silly question, what do you mean by: Note that the…

  5. Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 12:10 PM

    Joshua, “What I’m trying to understand is some kind of frame for assessing whether this predictive success is genuinely diagnostic…

  6. Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 11:42 AM

    Daniel - Reading your last comment has helped me clarify my own thinking about where I'm getting stuck. I think…

  7. Andrew on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:53 AM

    Roy: You have to scroll down to the end, where there's this letter: I am distressed that the TLS published…

  8. Daniel Lakeland on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 10:46 AM

    Anoneuoid, I personally dont have the time to do this kind of model, but if you want to work on…

  9. Roy on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:38 AM

    I don't know about Dr. Tavris, but I now do know that maybe Serbia killed the Archduke. Perhaps the Times…

  10. Daniel Lakeland on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 10:34 AM

    David, I do argue that plagiarism is fraud. The problem with Plagiarism as an argument is its considered a "crime"…

  11. Andrew on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:30 AM

    I hadn't noticed! I'll try it.

  12. Rodney Sparapani on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:22 AM

    Is the email address on her CV working? https://tavris.socialpsychology.org/cv/Tavris-CV.2026.pdf

  13. somebody on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 9:49 AM

    2-body orbital mechanics is nonlinear, which creates sensitivity to initial conditions, but not chaotic

  14. gec on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 8:43 AM

    Now if only weather were comprised of spherical elastic cows in a vacuum, then we'd have something!

  15. David, a Bostonian in Tokyo on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 4:38 AM

    No! It's not fraud, it's plagiarism. You used the LLM's output and put your name, not the LLM's, on the…

  16. Anonymous on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 1:59 AM

    Sensitive dependence on initial conditions is used in orbital maneuvers in space to save fuel (usually at the cost of…

  17. Anoneuoid on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 11:56 PM

    R is the avg number of additional further infections caused by transmission from the infection of a given random newly…

  18. Daniel Lakeland on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 7:38 PM

    Joshua, I'd like to point you to this great lecture from 1977 by Donella Meadows, I link you to a…

  19. Jonathan (another one) on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 6:09 PM

    The notion that sensitive dependence to inital conditions is a controllable advantage seems like a fantasyland approach to me. I…

  20. Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 5:58 PM

    Joshua, “Death curves sit even further from the intervention than mobility does, and yet you treated that short-term alignment as…

  21. Eric Pedersen on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 5:53 PM

    I've seen previous work on dynamical systems indicating that chaotic systems are in some ways easier to control (I.e. lower…

  22. Andrew on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 6, 2026 4:17 PM

    Dan: Yes, I linked to that. See PPS above. I don't think I have anything to add to that aspect…

  23. Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 4:17 PM

    Daniel and Anonymous - I dropped this comment downstairs so it will be easier to respond should you want to…

  24. Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 4:14 PM

    Daniel and Anonymous - I'll drop this here in case you want to respond and then drop a link above.…

  25. Dan Elton on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 6, 2026 4:10 PM

    You should cover the The Cover-Up File, this bombshell was just blogged about by Data Colada on Friday. Forensic analysts…

  26. Andrew on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 3:16 PM

    Joe: I know, I know . . . and I studiously avoided using the n-word in my post above. I…

  27. joe on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 3:08 PM

    big day for the nudge literature!

  28. John N-G on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 12:39 PM

    Andy - Thanks for the detective work. Citation 39 is in Volume 63, Article #85 of its journal, but the…

  29. Andrew on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 12:37 PM

    Jeez. I'll tell Upmanu right away.

  30. Daniel Lakeland on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 12:22 PM

    Nah, the work is fraud if you make up the citations using an LLM. there is no other way to…

  31. Ben Schneider on Survey Statistics: Big Changes in the Times/Siena PollJuly 6, 2026 12:14 PM

    Shira, as always, I appreciate reading these survey statistics posts that help explicitly frame ideas with notation like E(Y |X).…

  32. Andy W on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 12:02 PM

    I am currently working on an app that verifies citations. (Folks can email me if you want alpha access, see…

  33. John N-G on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 11:58 AM

    Wow, shocking to see Andrew amplifying a paper on nudges! Seriously, though, the paper is really a call for a…

  34. Paul on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 6, 2026 11:55 AM

    Regarding expert verses fact witness (Not a lawyer but done in-house expert witness type work regarding discrimination and hang with…

  35. John Williams on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 11:52 AM

    Isn't there a measurement problem here? If you are going to model a real storm you have to describe it…

  36. Andrew on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 10:33 AM

    Dale: Oh, I have no idea how these papers were written. I recently saw Upmanu give a talk on the…

  37. Dale Lehman on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 10:18 AM

    The abstract sounds like AI generated abstracts and papers (such as many on https://jaigp.org/). Of course that doesn't make it…

  38. gec on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 9:58 AM

    Without discounting the possibility that this could work at some point---and allowing the possibility that we as a species would…

  39. Anoneuoid on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 9:52 AM

    There were claims the US was doing something like this to cause a drought over Iran, which stopped when the…

  40. AAAnonymous on The NIH wants to “Measure and Reward Scientific Impact and Replicable Research Practices.” Here’s my recommendation to the NIH director: you can start by no longer suppressing government reports whose conclusions happen to not be in accord with your ideological preferences.July 6, 2026 9:51 AM

    But only after trusting science and the experts, and an 4th shot that pierced the skin!

  41. John N. Maclean on What major works of literature were written after age of 85? 75? 65?!July 6, 2026 9:00 AM

    For the record, my dad, Norman Maclean, published his first book, A River Runs through It and Other Stories (three…

  42. T. Lysenko on The NIH wants to “Measure and Reward Scientific Impact and Replicable Research Practices.” Here’s my recommendation to the NIH director: you can start by no longer suppressing government reports whose conclusions happen to not be in accord with your ideological preferences.July 6, 2026 7:32 AM

    Praise the Lord and pass the ivermectin!

  43. John on Bayesian Workflow exists as a physical book!July 6, 2026 5:10 AM

    I’ve got my copy!

  44. Andrew on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 6, 2026 1:19 AM

    Ziggy: Yes, it's my impression that universities are not worse than corporate settings. Universities are just more open, so we…

  45. Ziggy on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 5, 2026 9:18 PM

    It's not just universities who act this way. In my experience, it is standard corporate practice for higher-level employees. The…

  46. Anon Coward on OK, I guess Lawrence “Epstein” Krauss didn’t follow his brother’s advice.July 5, 2026 7:37 PM

    Roger Schlafly: (For some reason, I can't apply directly to your July 2 post). The consequences for the former Prince…

  47. Daniel Lakeland on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 5, 2026 5:58 PM

    This thread is getting very difficult to participate in via my phone. hopefully this makes it to the right thread.…

  48. Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 5, 2026 2:36 PM

    "I think it’s complicated to compare compliance across countries when the underlying policies and legal contexts differ. The lockdown orders…

  49. Andrew on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 5, 2026 2:29 PM

    Seth: On one hand, Harvard is corrupt and has highly decorated faculty who have performed research misconduct. Beyond that, one…

  50. Phil on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 5, 2026 1:49 PM

    I've got a comment that barely even touches on this discussion, but it does have just one point of contact…

Proudly powered by WordPress