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“Here’s an interesting story right in your sweet spot”

Jonathan Falk writes: Here’s an interesting story right in your sweet spot: Large effects from something whose possible effects couldn’t be that large? Check. Finding something in a sample of 1024 people that requires 34,000 to gain adequate power? Check. Misuse of p values? Check Science journalist hype? Check Searching for the cause of an […]

The status-reversal heuristic

Awhile ago we came up with the time-reversal heuristic, which was a reaction to the common situation that there’s a noisy study, followed by an unsuccessful replication, but all sorts of people want to take the original claim as the baseline and construct high walls to make it difficult to move away from that claim. […]

My talk on visualization and data science this Sunday 9am

Uncovering Principles of Statistical Visualization Visualizations are central to good statistical workflow, but it has been difficult to establish general principles governing their use. We will try to back out some principles of visualization by considering examples of effective and ineffective uses of graphics in our own applied research. We consider connections between three goals […]

How to think scientifically about scientists’ proposals for fixing science

I kinda like this little article which I wrote a couple years ago while on the train from the airport. It will appear in the journal Socius. Here’s how it begins: Science is in crisis. Any doubt about this status has surely been been dispelled by the loud assurances to the contrary by various authority […]

Rachel Tanur Memorial Prize for Visual Sociology

Judith Tanur writes: The Rachel Tanur Memorial Prize for Visual Sociology recognizes students in the social sciences who incorporate visual analysis in their work. The contest is open worldwide to undergraduate and graduate students (majoring in any social science). It is named for Rachel Dorothy Tanur (1958–2002), an urban planner and lawyer who cared deeply […]

Poetry corner

Ray Could Write Statistics Be What has happened down here is the winds have changed Spin The Paper of My Enemy Has Been Retracted Imaginary gardens with real data A parable regarding changing standards on the presentation of statistical evidence Laplace Calling Thanks to W. B. Yeats, Young Tiger, Randy Newman, W. H. Auden, Clive […]

When presenting a new method, talk about its failure modes.

A coauthor writes: I really like the paper [we are writing] as it is. My only criticism of it perhaps would be that we present this great new method and discuss all of its merits, but we do not really discuss when it fails / what its downsides are. Are there any cases where the […]

On the term “self-appointed” . . .

I was reflecting on what bugs me so much about people using the term “self-appointed” (for example, when disparaging “self-appointed data police” or “self-appointed chess historians“). The obvious question when someone talks about “self-appointed” whatever is, Who self-appointed you to decide who is illegitimately self-appointed? But my larger concern is with the idea that being […]

What’s the p-value good for: I answer some questions.

Martin King writes: For a couple of decades (from about 1988 to 2006) I was employed as a support statistician, and became very interested in the p-value issue; hence my interest in your contribution to this debate. (I am not familiar with the p-value ‘reconciliation’ literature, as published after about 2005.) I would hugely appreciate […]

Elsevier > Association for Psychological Science

Everyone dunks on Elsevier. But here’s a case where they behaved well. Jordan Anaya points us to this article from Retraction Watch: In May, [psychology professor Barbara] Fredrickson was last author of a paper in Psychoneuroendocrinology claiming to show that loving-kindness meditation slowed biological aging, specifically that it kept telomeres — which protect chromosomes — […]

Automation and judgment, from the rational animal to the irrational machine

Virgil Kurkjian writes: I was recently going through some of your recent blog posts and came across Using numbers to replace judgment. I recently wrote something about legible signaling which I think helps shed some light on exactly what causes the bureaucratization of science and maybe what we can do about it. In short I […]

Glenn Shafer: “The Language of Betting as a Strategy for Statistical and Scientific Communication”

Glenn Shafer writes: I have joined the immense crowd writing about p-values. My proposal is to replace them with betting outcomes: the factor by which a bet against the hypothesis multiplies the money it risks. This addresses the desideratum you and Carlin identify: embrace all the uncertainty. No one will forget that the outcome of […]

Stan contract jobs!

Sean writes: We are starting to get money and time to manage paid contracting jobs to try to get a handle on some of our technical debt. Any or all of the skills could be valuable: C++ software engineering C++ build tools, compilers, and toolchains Creating installers or packages of any kind (especially cross-platform) Windows […]

My talk at the Brookings Institution this Fri 11am

The replication crisis in science: Does it matter for policy? Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University I argue that policy analysts should care about the replication crisis for three reasons: (1) High-profile policy claims have been systematically exaggerated; (2) This has implications for how to conduct and interpret new […]

BizStat: Modeling performance indicators for deals

Ben Hanowell writes: I’ve worked for tech companies for four years now. Most have a key performance indicator that seeks to measure the rate at which an event occurs. In the simplest case, think of the event as a one-off deal, say an attempt by a buy-side real estate agent to close a deal on […]

Are statistical nitpickers (e.g., Kaiser Fung and me) getting the way of progress or even serving the forces of evil?

As Ira Glass says, today we have a theme and some variations on this theme. Statistical nitpickers: Do they cause more harm than good? I’d like to think we cause more good than harm, but today I want to consider the counter-argument, that, even when we are correct on the technical merits, we statisticians should […]

Carol Nickerson

Nick Brown informed me that Carol Nickerson passed away. Nick writes: Carol was unemployed for the last five years of her life. She had been associate/adjunct faculty at UIUC for some time, but when I got to know her she was being let go after she refused to do something unethical for the person who […]

More on that 4/20 road rage researcher: Dude could be a little less amused, a little more willing to realize he could be on the wrong track with a lot of his research.

So, back on 4/20 we linked to the post by Sam Harper and Adam Palayew shooting down a silly article, published in JAMA and publicized around the world, that claimed excess road deaths on 4/20 (“cannabis day”). I googled the authors of that silly JAMA paper and found that one of them, Dr. Donald Redelmeier, […]

Kaiser Fung suggests “20 paper ideas pre-approved for prestigious journals”

I got to thinking about this after reading a post from Kaiser Fung “offering up 20 paper ideas pre-approved for prestigious journals.” What happened is that JAMA published a silly paper claiming a 12 percent increase in fatal car crashes on April 20 (“420 day,” the unofficial marijuana holiday). Following Sam Harper and Adam Palayew, […]

Golf example now a Stan case study!

It’s here! (and here’s the page with all the Stan case studies). In this case study, I’m following up on two earlier posts, here and here, which in turn follow up this 2002 paper with Deb Nolan. My Stan case study is an adaptation of a model fit by Columbia business school professor and golf […]