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Boris Karloff (3) vs. Mel Brooks; Riad Sattouf advances

In yesterday’s contest, Dalton asks: Lance Armstrong isn’t even a GOAT. Did he cheat to get included on the list at the expense of Eddy Merckx? But then Jrc points out: Lance isn’t in for Cycling GOAT, he’s in for NGO-bracelet GOAT. I’m pretty sure he didn’t juice the bracelets. Although now that I think […]

Kevin Lewis has a surefire idea for a project for the high school Science Talent Search

Here’s his idea: If I were a student, I’d do a study on how Science Talent Search judges are biased. That way, they can’t reject it, otherwise it’s self-confirming. That’s a great idea! Maybe it’s possible to go meta on this one by adding some sort of game-theoretic model or simulation of talent search submission […]

Riad Sattouf (1) vs. Lance Armstrong; Bruce Springsteen advances

Best comment yesterday came from Jan: Now we have opportunity to see in the next round whether Julia is really that much better than Python! But that doesn’t resolve anything! So to pick a winner we’ll have to go with Tom: Python foresaw the replication crisis with their scientific method of proving someone is a […]

“News Release from the JAMA Network”

A couple people pointed me to this: Here’s the Notice of Retraction: On May 8, 2018, notices of Expression of Concern were published regarding articles published in JAMA and the JAMA Network journals that included Brian Wansink, PhD, as author. At that time, Cornell University was contacted and was requested to conduct an independent evaluation […]

Statmodeling Retro

As many of you know, this blog auto-posts on twitter. That’s cool. But we also have 15 years of old posts with lots of interesting content and discussion! So I had this idea of setting up another twitter feed, Statmodeling Retro, that would start with our very first post in 2004 and then go forward, […]

Monty Python vs. Bruce Springsteen (1); Julia Child advances

From Jeff: If they meet in the semi-final the Japanese dude will eat Frank for lunch: All vs. Nothing at All. Though it appears she also had a soft spot for hot dogs, if Julia makes it that far it would be a matchup of gourmet vs gourmand, which seems a better contest. Today it’s […]

Geoff Pullum, the linguist who hates Strunk and White, is speaking at Columbia this Friday afternoon

The title of the talk is Grammar, Writing Style, and Linguistics, and here’s the abstract: Some critics seem to think that English grammar is just a brief checklist of linguistic table manners that every educated person should already know. Others see grammar as a complex, esoteric, and largely useless discipline replete with technical terms that […]

Julia Child (2) vs. Frank Sinatra (3); Dorothy Parker

For yesterday‘s contest, Jonathan gave a strong argument: First New Yorker showdown, just to see who will be taking on Veronica Geng in the finals. All the other contestants are just for show. I’m going with Liebling, because Parker wasn’t even the best New Yorker writer of her generation, being edged out by Benchley. Liebling […]

My talk today (Tues 19 Feb) 2pm at the University of Southern California

At the Center for Economic and Social Research, Dauterive Hall (VPD), room 110, 635 Downey Way, Los Angeles: The study of American politics as a window into understanding uncertainty in science Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University We begin by discussing recent American elections in the context of political […]

I believe this study because it is consistent with my existing beliefs.

Kevin Lewis points us to this.

A. J. Liebling vs. Dorothy Parker (2); Steve Martin advances

As Dalton wrote: On one hand, Serena knows how to handle a racket. But Steve Martin knows how to make a racket with some strings stretched taught over a frame. Are you really gonna bet against the dude who went to toe-to-toe Kermit the Frog in racket making duel? Today we have an unseeded eater […]

R fixed its default histogram bin width!

I remember hist() in R as having horrible defaults, with the histogram bars way too wide. (See this discussion: A key benefit of a histogram is that, as a plot of raw data, it contains the seeds of its own error assessment. Or, to put it another way, the jaggedness of a slightly undersmoothed histogram […]

Update on that study of p-hacking

Ron Berman writes: I noticed you posted an anonymous email about our working paper on p-hacking and false discovery, but was a bit surprised that it references an early version of the paper. We addressed the issues mentioned in the post more than two months ago in a version that has been available online since […]

Serena Williams vs. Steve Martin (4); The Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest advances

We didn’t have much yesterday, so I went with this meta-style comment from Jesse: I’m pulling for Kobayashi if only because the longer he’s in, the more often Andrew will have to justify describing him vs using his name. The thought of Andrew introducing the speaker as “and now, here’s that Japanese dude who won […]

“Do you have any recommendations for useful priors when datasets are small?”

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I just read your paper with Daniel Simpson and Michael Betancourt, The Prior Can Often Only Be Understood in the Context of the Likelihood, and I find it refreshing to read that “the practical utility of a prior distribution within a given analysis then depends critically on both […]

P-hacking in study of “p-hacking”?

Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: This paper [“p-Hacking and False Discovery in A/B Testing,” by Ron Berman, Leonid Pekelis, Aisling Scott, and Christophe Van den Bulte] ostensibly provides evidence of “p-hacking” in online experimentation (A/B testing) by looking at the decision to stop experiments right around thresholds for the platform presenting confidence that […]

The Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest vs. Oscar Wilde (1); Albert Brooks advances

Yesterday I was going to go with this argument from Ethan: Now I’m morally bound to use the Erdos argument I said no one would see unless he made it to this round. Andrew will take the speaker out to dinner, prove a theorem, publish it and earn an Erdos number of 1. But then […]

More on that horrible statistical significance grid

Regarding this horrible Table 4: Eric Loken writes: The clear point or your post was that p-values (and even worse the significance versus non-significance) are a poor summary of data. The thought I’ve had lately, working with various groups of really smart and thoughtful researchers, is that Table 4 is also a model of their […]

Paul Erdos vs. Albert Brooks; Sid Caesar advances

The key question yesterday was, can Babe Didrikson Zaharias do comedy or can Sid Caesar do sports. According to Mark Palko, Sid Caesar was by all accounts extremely physically strong. And I know of no evidence that Babe was funny. So Your Show of Shows will be going into the third round. And now we […]

Simulation-based statistical testing in journalism

Jonathan Stray writes: In my recent Algorithms in Journalism course we looked at a post which makes a cute little significance-type argument that five Trump campaign payments were actually the $130,000 Daniels payoff. They summed to within a dollar of $130,000, so the simulation recreates sets of payments using bootstrapping and asks how often there’s […]