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Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model

Nick Kavanagh writes: I studied economics in college and never heard more than a passing reference to Bayesian stats. I started to encounter Bayesian concepts in the workplace and decided to teach myself on the side. I was hoping to get your advice on a problem that I recently encountered. It has to do with […]

Stancon is happening now.

Hi, everyone!

Coney Island

Inspired by this story (“Good news! Researchers respond to a correction by acknowledging it and not trying to dodge its implications”): Coming down from Psych Science Stopping off at PNAS Out all day datagathering And the craic was good Stopped off at the old lab Early in the morning Drove through Harvard taking pictures And […]

You should (usually) log transform your positive data

The reason for log transforming your data is not to deal with skewness or to get closer to a normal distribution; that’s rarely what we care about. Validity, additivity, and linearity are typically much more important. The reason for log transformation is in many settings it should make additive and linear models make more sense. […]

Did that “bottomless soup bowl” experiment ever happen?

I’m trying to figure out if Brian “Pizzagate” Wansink’s famous “bottomless soup bowl” experiment really happened. Way back when, everybody thought the experiment was real. After all, it was described in a peer-reviewed journal article. Here’s my friend Seth Roberts in 2006: An experiment in which people eat soup from a bottomless bowl? Classic! Or […]

“The issue of how to report the statistics is one that we thought about deeply, and I am quite sure we reported them correctly.”

Ricardo Vieira writes: I recently came upon this study from Princeton published in PNAS: Implicit model of other people’s visual attention as an invisible, force-carrying beam projecting from the eyes In which the authors asked people to demonstrate how much you have to tilt an object before it falls. They show that when a human […]

“I feel like the really solid information therein comes from non or negative correlations”

Steve Roth writes: I’d love to hear your thoughts on this approach (heavily inspired by Arindrajit Dube’s work, linked therein): This relates to our discussion from 2014: My biggest takeaway from this latest: I feel like the really solid information therein comes from non or negative correlations: • It comes before • But it doesn’t […]

What can be learned from this study?

James Coyne writes: A recent article co-authored by a leading mindfulness researcher claims to address the problems that plague meditation research, namely, underpowered studies; lack of or meaningful control groups; and an exclusive reliance on subjective self-report measures, rather than measures of the biological substrate that could establish possible mechanisms. The article claims adequate sample […]

Bayesian Computation conference in January 2020

X writes to remind us of the Bayesian computation conference: – BayesComp 2020 occurs on 7-10 January 2020 in Gainesville, Florida, USA – Registration is open with regular rates till October 14, 2019 – Deadline for submission of poster proposals is December 15, 2019 – Deadline for travel support applications is September 20, 2019 – […]

Amending Conquest’s Law to account for selection bias

Robert Conquest was a historian who published critical studies of the Soviet Union and whose famous “First Law” is, “Everybody is reactionary on subjects he knows about.” I did some searching on the internet, and the most authoritative source seems to be this quote from Conquest’s friend Kingsley Amis: Further search led to this elaboration […]

Replication police methodological terrorism stasi nudge shoot the messenger wtf

Cute quote: (The link comes from Stuart Richie.) Sunstein later clarified: I’ll take Sunstein’s word that he no longer thinks it’s funny to attack people who work for open science and say that they’re just like people who spread disinformation. I have no idea what Sunstein thinks the “grain of truth” is, but I guess […]

As always, I think the best solution is not for researchers to just report on some preregistered claim, but rather for them to display the entire multiverse of possible relevant results.

I happened to receive these two emails in the same day. Russ Lyons pointed to this news article by Jocelyn Kaiser, “Major medical journals don’t follow their own rules for reporting results from clinical trials,” and Kevin Lewis pointed to this research article by Kevin Murphy and Herman Aguinis, “HARKing: How Badly Can Cherry-Picking and […]

“Beyond ‘Treatment Versus Control’: How Bayesian Analysis Makes Factorial Experiments Feasible in Education Research”

Daniel Kassler, Ira Nichols-Barrer, and Mariel Finucane write: Researchers often wish to test a large set of related interventions or approaches to implementation. A factorial experiment accomplishes this by examining not only basic treatment–control comparisons but also the effects of multiple implementation “factors” such as different dosages or implementation strategies and the interactions between these […]

Here are some examples of real-world statistical analyses that don’t use p-values and significance testing.

Joe Nadeau writes: I’ve followed the issues about p-values, signif. testing et al. both on blogs and in the literature. I appreciate the points raised, and the pointers to alternative approaches. All very interesting, provocative. My question is whether you and your colleagues can point to real world examples of these alternative approaches. It’s somewhat […]

Attorney General of the United States less racist than Nobel prize winning biologist

This sounds pretty bad: The FBI was better off when “you all only hired Irishmen,” [former Attorney General] Sessions said in one diatribe about the bureau’s workforce. “They were drunks but they could be trusted. . . .” But compare to this from Mister Helix: [The] historic curse of the Irish . . . is […]

For each parameter (or other qoi), compare the posterior sd to the prior sd. If the posterior sd for any parameter (or qoi) is more than 0.1 times the prior sd, then print out a note: “The prior distribution for this parameter is informative.”

Statistical models are placeholders. We lay down a model, fit it to data, use the fitted model to make inferences about quantities of interest (qois), check to see if the model’s implications are consistent with data and substantive information, and then go back to the model and alter, fix, update, augment, etc. Given that models […]

Conditional probability and police shootings

A political scientist writes: You might have already seen this, but in case not: PNAS published a paper [Officer characteristics and racial disparities in fatal officer-involved shootings, by David Johnson, Trevor Tress, Nicole Burkel, Carley Taylor, and Joseph Cesario] recently finding no evidence of racial bias in police shootings: Jonathan Mummolo and Dean Knox noted […]

Multilevel Bayesian analyses of the growth mindset experiment

Jared Murray, one of the coauthors of the Growth Mindset study we discussed yesterday, writes: Here are some pointers to details about the multilevel Bayesian modeling we did in the Nature paper, and some notes about ongoing & future work. We did a Bayesian analysis not dissimilar to the one you wished for! In section […]

“Study finds ‘Growth Mindset’ intervention taking less than an hour raises grades for ninth graders”

I received this press release in the mail: Study finds ‘Growth Mindset’ intervention taking less than an hour raises grades for ninth graders Intervention is first to show national applicability, breaks new methodological ground – Study finds low-cost, online growth mindset program taking less than an hour can improve ninth graders’ academic achievement – The […]

Hey, look! The R graph gallery is back.

We’ve recommended the R graph gallery before, but then it got taken down. But now it’s back! I wouldn’t use it on its own as a teaching tool, in that it has a lot of graphs that I would not recommend (see here), but it’s a great resource, so thanks so much to Yan Holtz […]