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Cops’ views

In response to Dan’s post today about police reform, commenter Joshua wrote: I wonder if Jonathan Haidt and Tucker Carlson will start campaigning for greater viewpoint diversity in the police unions? In response I wrote that I think there is viewpoint diversity among police officers already. How much viewpoint diversity is there in police union […]

Using the rank-based inverse normal transformation

Luca La Rocca writes: You may like to know that the approach suggested in your post, Don’t do the Wilcoxon, is qualified as “common practice in Genome-Wide Association Studies”, according to this forthcoming paper in Biometrics to which I have no connection (and which I didn’t inspect beyond the Introduction). The idea is that, instead […]

Vaccine development as a decision problem

This post by Alex Tabarrok hits all the right notes: At current rates, the US economy is losing about $40 billion a week. Thus, if $20 billion could advance a vaccine by just one week that would be a good deal. . . . It might seem expensive to invest in capacity for a vaccine […]

How should those Lancet/Surgisphere/Harvard data have been analyzed?

As you will recall, the original criticism of the recent Lancet/Surgisphere/Harvard paper on hydro-oxy-whatever was not that the data came from a Theranos-like company that employs more adult-content models than statisticians, but rather that the data, being observational, required some adjustment to yield strong causal conclusions—and the causal adjustment reported in that article did not […]

Laplace’s Theories of Cognitive Illusions, Heuristics and Biases

A few years ago, Josh “Don’t call him ‘hot hand’” Miller read Laplace’s classic book on probability theory and noticed that it anticipated much of the “heuristics and biases” literature (also called “cognitive illusions” or “behavioral economics”) of the past fifty years. We wrote up our ideas and, years later, our article made it into […]

Sequential Bayesian Designs for Rapid Learning in COVID-19 Clinical Trials

This from Frank Harrell looks important: This trial will adopt a Bayesian framework. Continuous learning from data and computation of probabilities that are directly applicable to decision making in the face of uncertainty are hallmarks of the Bayesian approach. Bayesian sequential designs are the simplest of flexible designs, and continuous learning capitalizes on their efficiency, […]

Thank you, James Watson. Thank you, Peter Ellis. (Lancet: You should do the right thing and credit them for your retraction. Actually, do one better and invite them to write a joint editorial in your journal.)

So, Lancet issued a retraction of that controversy hydro-oxy-choloro-supercalifragilisticexpialadocious paper. From three of the four authors of the now-retracted paper: After publication of our Lancet Article, several concerns were raised with respect to the veracity of the data and analyses conducted by Surgisphere Corporation and its founder and our co-author, Sapan Desai, in our publication. […]

Association for Psychological Science claims that they can “add our voice and expertise to bring about positive change and to stand against injustice and racism in all forms” . . . but I’m skeptical.

David Leonhardt writes: Close to 10 percent of black men in their 30s are behind bars on any given day, according to the Sentencing Project. . . . When the government last counted how many black men had ever spent time in state or federal prison — in 2001 — the share was 17 percent. […]

Harvard-laundering (the next stage of the Lancet scandal)

We’ve been talking a lot recently about how the Lancet brand has been used to launder questionable research. Things are changing; though! People have sent me links showing that Lancet and New England Journal of Medicine have retracted the controversial Surgisphere papers, or issued expressions of concern, or whatever. It’s good to see a scientific […]

Can someone build a Bayesian tool that takes into account your symptoms and where you live to estimate your probability of having coronavirus?

Carl Mears writes: I’m married to a doctor who does primary care with a mostly disadvantaged patient base. The problem her patients face is if they get tested for COVID, they are supposed to self quarantine until they get their test results, which currently takes something like a week. Also, their *family* is supposed to […]

This one’s important: Bayesian workflow for disease transmission modeling in Stan

Léo Grinsztajn, Elizaveta Semenova, Charles Margossian, and Julien Riou write: This tutorial shows how to build, fit, and criticize disease transmission models in Stan, and should be useful to researchers interested in modeling the COVID-19 outbreak and doing Bayesian inference. Bayesian modeling provides a principled way to quantify uncertainty and incorporate prior knowledge into the […]

Statistical Workflow and the Fractal Nature of Scientific Revolutions (my talk this Wed at the Santa Fe Institute)

Wed 3 June 2020 at 12:15pm U.S. Mountain time: Statistical Workflow and the Fractal Nature of Scientific Revolutions How would an A.I. do statistics? Fitting a model is the easy part. The other steps of workflow—model building, checking, and revision—are not so clearly algorithmic. It could be fruitful to simultaneously think about automated inference and […]

This one’s for the Lancet editorial board: A trolley problem for our times (involving a plate of delicious cookies and a steaming pile of poop)

A trolley problem for our times OK, I couldn’t quite frame this one as a trolley problem—maybe those of you who are more philosophically adept than I am can do this—so I set it up as a cookie problem? Here it is: Suppose someone was to knock on your office door and use some mix […]

“Note sure what the lesson for data analysis quality control is here is here, but interesting to wonder about how that mistake was not caught pre-publication.”

The Journal of the American Medical Association published a correction notice with perhaps the most boring title ever written: Incorrect Data Due to Incorrect Conversion Factor In the Original Investigation entitled “Effect of Intravenous Acetaminophen vs Placebo Combined With Propofol or Dexmedetomidine on Postoperative Delirium Among Older Patients Following Cardiac Surgery: The DEXACET Randomized Clinical […]

Association for Psychological Science takes a hard stand against criminal justice reform

Here’s the full quote, from an article to be published in one of our favorite academic journals: The prescriptive values of highly educated groups (such as secularism, but also libertarianism, criminal justice reform, and unrestricted sociosexuality, among others) may work for groups that are highly cognitively sophisticated and self-controlled, but they may be injurious to […]

The turtles stop here. Why we meta-science: a meta-meta-science manifesto

All those postscripts in the previous post . . . this sort of explanation of why I’m writing about the scientific process, it comes up a lot. I spend a lot of time thinking and writing about the research process, rather than just doing research. And all too often I often find myself taking time […]

“The good news about this episode is that it’s kinda shut up those people who were criticizing that Stanford antibody study because it was an un-peer-reviewed preprint. . . .” and a P.P.P.S. with Paul Alper’s line about the dead horse

People keep emailing me about this recently published paper, but I already said I’m not going to write about it. So I’ll mask the details. Philippe Lemoine writes: So far it seems you haven’t taken a close look at the paper yourself and I’m hoping that you will, because I’m curious to know what you […]

In Bayesian priors, why do we use soft rather than hard constraints?

Luiz Max Carvalho has a question about the prior distributions for hyperparameters in our paper, Bayesian analysis of tests with unknown specificity and sensitivity: My reply: 1. We recommend soft rather than hard constraints when we have soft rather than hard knowledge. In this case, we don’t absolutely know that spec and sens are greater […]

“The Moral Economy of Science”

In our discussion of Lorraine Daston’s “How Probabilities Came to Be Objective and Subjective,” commenter John Richters points to Daston’s 1995 article, “The Moral Economy of Science,” which is super-interesting and also something I’d never heard of before. I should really read the whole damn article and comment on everything in it, but for now […]

An open letter expressing concerns regarding the statistical analysis and data integrity of a recently published and publicized paper

James Watson prepared this open letter to **, **, **, and **, authors of ** and to ** (editor of **). The letter has approximately 96,032 signatures from approximately 6 continents. And I heard a rumor that they have contacts at the Antarctic Polar Station who are going to sign the thing once they can […]