Reading some of the back-and-forth in this thread, it struck me that some of the discussion was about data, some was about models, some was about underlying reality, but none of the discussion was driven by statements that this or that pattern in data was “statistically significant.” Here’s the problem with “statistical significance” as I […]

## R-squared for multilevel models

Brandon Sherman writes: I just was just having a discussion with someone about multilevel models, and the following topic came up. Imagine we’re building a multilevel model to predict SAT scores using many students. First we fit a model on students only, then students in classrooms, then students in classrooms within district, the previous case […]

## Wanted: Statistical success stories

Bill Harris writes: Sometime when you get a free moment, it might be great to publish a post that links to good, current exemplars of analyses. There’s a current discussion about RCTs on a program evaluation mailing list I monitor. I posted links to your power=0.06 post and your Type S and Type M post, […]

## No, its not correct to say that you can be 95% sure that the true value will be in the confidence interval

Hans van Maanen writes: Mag ik je weer een statistische vraag voorleggen? If I ask my frequentist statistician for a 95%-confidence interval, I can be 95% sure that the true value will be in the interval she just gave me. My visualisation is that she filled a bowl with 100 intervals, 95 of which do […]

## Claims about excess road deaths on “4/20” don’t add up

Sam Harper writes: Since you’ve written about similar papers (that recent NRA study in NEJM, the birthday analysis) before and we linked to a few of your posts, I thought you might be interested in this recent blog post we wrote about a similar kind of study claiming that fatal motor vehicle crashes increase by 12% after 4:20pm […]

## A question about the piranha problem as it applies to A/B testing

Wicaksono Wijono writes: While listening to your seminar about the piranha problem a couple weeks back, I kept thinking about a similar work situation but in the opposite direction. I’d be extremely grateful if you share your thoughts. So the piranha problem is stated as “There can be some large and predictable effects on behavior, […]

## Lessons about statistics and research methods from that racial attitudes example

Yesterday we shared some discussions of recent survey results on racial attitudes. For students and teachers of statistics or research methods, I think the key takeaway should be that you don’t want to pull out just one number from a survey; you want to get the big picture by looking at multiple questions, multiple years, […]

## “Sometimes all we have left are pictures and fear”: Dan Simpson talk in Columbia stat dept, 4pm Monday

4:10pm Monday, April 22 in Social Work Bldg room 903: Data is getting weirder. Statistical models and techniques are more complex than they have ever been. No one understand what code does. But at the same time, statistical tools are being used by a wider range of people than at any time in the past. […]

## Changing racial differences in attitudes on changing racial differences

Elin Waring writes: Have you been following the release of GSS results this year? I had been vaguely aware that there was reporting on a few items but then I happened to run the natrace and natracey variables (I use these in my class to look at question wording), they are from the are we […]

## Abandoning statistical significance is both sensible and practical

Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, Blakeley McShane, and I write: Dr Ioannidis writes against our proposals [here and here] to abandon statistical significance in scientific reasoning and publication, as endorsed in the editorial of a recent special issue of an American Statistical Association journal devoted to moving to a “post p

## The network of models and Bayesian workflow, related to generative grammar for statistical models

Ben Holmes writes: I’m a machine learning guy working in fraud prevention, and a member of some biostatistics and clinical statistics research groups at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio. I just heard your talk “Theoretical Statistics is the Theory of Applied Statistics” on YouTube, and was extremely interested in the idea of a model-space […]

## Parliamentary Constituency Factsheet for Indicators of Nutrition, Health and Development in India

S. V. Subramanian writes: In India, data on key developmental indicators that formulate policies and interventions are routinely available for the administrative units of districts but not for the political units of Parliamentary Constituencies (PC). Members of Parliament (MPs) in the Lok Sabha, each representing 543 PCs as per the 2014 India map, are the […]

## State-space models in Stan

Michael Ziedalski writes: For the past few months I have been delving into Bayesian statistics and have (without hyperbole) finally found statistics intuitive and exciting. Recently I have gone into Bayesian time series methods; however, I have found no libraries to use that can implement those models. Happily, I found Stan because it seemed among […]

## All statistical conclusions require assumptions.

Mark Palko points us to this 2009 article by Itzhak Gilboa, Andrew Postlewaite, and David Schmeidler, which begins: This note argues that, under some circumstances, it is more rational not to behave in accordance with a Bayesian prior than to do so. The starting point is that in the absence of information, choosing a prior […]

## Works of art that are about themselves

I watched Citizen Kane (for the umpteenth time) the other day and was again struck by how it is a movie about itself. Kane is William Randolph Hearst, but he’s also Orson Welles, boy wonder, and the movie Citizen Kane is self-consciously a masterpiece. Some other examples of movies that are about themselves are La […]

## Several reviews of Deborah Mayo’s new book, Statistical Inference as Severe Testing: How to Get Beyond the Statistics Wars

A few months ago I sent the following message to some people: Dear philosophically-inclined colleagues: I’d like to organize an online discussion of Deborah Mayo’s new book. The table of contents and some of the book are here at Google books, also in the attached pdf and in this post by Mayo. I think that […]

## Active learning and decision making with varying treatment effects!

In a new paper, Iiris Sundin, Peter Schulam, Eero Siivola, Aki Vehtari, Suchi Saria, and Samuel Kaski write: Machine learning can help personalized decision support by learning models to predict individual treatment effects (ITE). This work studies the reliability of prediction-based decision-making in a task of deciding which action a to take for a target […]

## What sort of identification do you get from panel data if effects are long-term? Air pollution and cognition example.

Don MacLeod writes: Perhaps you know this study which is being taken at face value in all the secondary reports: “Air pollution causes ‘huge’ reduction in intelligence, study reveals.” It’s surely alarming, but the reported effect of air pollution seems implausibly large, so it’s hard to be convinced of it by a correlational study alone, […]

## What is the most important real-world data processing tip you’d like to share with others?

This question was in today’s jitts for our communication class. Here are some responses: Invest the time to learn data manipulation tools well (e.g. tidyverse). Increased familiarity with these tools often leads to greater time savings and less frustration in future. Hmm it’s never one tip.. I never ever found it useful to begin writing […]

## Prestigious journal publishes sexy selfie study

Stephen Oliver writes: Not really worth blogging about and a likely candidate for multiverse analysis, but the beginning of the first sentence in the 2nd paragraph made me laugh: In the study – published in prestigious journal PNAS . . . The researchers get extra points for this quote from the press release: The researchers […]