1. An estimate of the geography of partisan prejudice My colleagues David Rothschild and Tobi Konitzer recently published this MRP analysis, “The Geography of Partisan Prejudice: A guide to the most—and least—politically open-minded counties in America,” written up by Amanda Ripley, Rekha Tenjarla, and Angela He. Ripley et al. write: In general, the most politically […]

## “Heckman curve” update: The data *don’t* seem to support the claim that human capital investments are most effective when targeted at younger ages.

David Rea and Tony Burton write: The Heckman Curve describes the rate of return to public investments in human capital for the disadvantaged as rapidly diminishing with age. Investments early in the life course are characterised as providing significantly higher rates of return compared to investments targeted at young people and adults. This paper uses […]

## Treatment interactions can be hard to estimate from data.

Brendan Nyhan writes: Per #3 here, just want to make sure you saw the Coppock Leeper Mullinix paper indicating treatment effect heterogeneity is rare. My reply: I guess it depends on what is being studied. In the world of evolutionary psychology etc., interactions are typically claimed to be larger than main effects (for example, that […]

## Some Stan and Bayes short courses!

Robert Grant writes: I have a couple of events coming up that people might be interested in. They are all at bayescamp.com/courses Stan Taster Webinar is on 15 May, runs for one hour and is only £15. I’ll demo Stan through R (and maybe PyStan and CmdStan if the interest is there on the day), […]

## “The Long-Run Effects of America’s First Paid Maternity Leave Policy”: I need that trail of breadcrumbs.

Tyler Cowen links to a research article by Brenden Timpe, “The Long-Run Effects of America’s First Paid Maternity Leave Policy,” that begins as follows: This paper provides the first evidence of the effect of a U.S. paid maternity leave policy on the long-run outcomes of children. I exploit variation in access to paid leave that […]

## N=1 survey points to Beto O’Rourke as Democratic nominee in 2020

Last year we did an N=1 poll on the Democratic primary election for governor of New York. And the poll worked pretty well. To recap: A survey with N=1! And not even a random sample. How could we possibly learn anything useful from that? We have a few things in our favor: – Auxiliary information […]

## What’s a good default prior for regression coefficients? A default Edlin factor of 1/2?

The punch line “Your readers are my target audience. I really want to convince them that it makes sense to divide regression coefficients by 2 and their standard errors by sqrt(2). Of course, additional prior information should be used whenever available.” The background It started with an email from Erik van Zwet, who wrote: In […]

## Thinking about “Abandon statistical significance,” p-values, etc.

We had some good discussion the other day following up on the article, “Retire Statistical Significance,” by Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane. I have a lot to say, and it’s hard to put it all together, in part because my collaborators and I have said much of it already, in various forms. For […]

## An R package for multiverse analysis and counting researcher degrees of freedom

Joachim Gassen writes: In a recent blog post I introduce an in-development R package that helps researchers to identify, document and exhaust inherent research design choices in work based on observational data. As the analysis that I propose is similar in notion to a multiverse analysis that you suggested, I thought that maybe the package […]

## Impact of published research on behavior and avoidable fatalities

In a paper entitled, “Impact of published research on behavior and avoidable fatalities,” Addison Kramer, Alexandra Kirk, Faizaan Easton, and Bertram Hester write: There has long been speculation of an “informational backfire effect,” whereby the publication of questionable scientific claims can lead to behavioral changes that are counterproductive in the aggregate. Concerns of informational backfire […]

## Another bit from Art Owen, this time dunking on ripoff publishers

From Owen’s review of Mayo’s book: Going through this put me in mind of Jim Zidek’s early 1980s work on multi-Bayesian theory. The most cited paper there is his JRSS-A paper with Weerahandri from 1981. From the abstract it looks more like it addresses formation of a consensus posterior or decision choice and is not […]

## A comment about p-values from Art Owen, upon reading Deborah Mayo’s new book

The Stanford statistician writes: One of the fun parts of this was reading some of what Meehl wrote. I’d seen him quoted but had not read him before. What he says reminds me a lot of how p values were presented when I was an undergraduate at Waterloo. They emphasized large p values as a […]

## Here’s an idea for not getting tripped up with default priors . . .

I put this in the Prior Choice Recommendations wiki awhile ago: “The prior can often only be understood in the context of the likelihood”: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/research/published/entropy-19-00555-v2.pdf Here’s an idea for not getting tripped up with default priors: For each parameter (or other qoi), compare the posterior sd to the prior sd. If the posterior sd for […]

## David Weakliem on the U.S. electoral college

The sociologist and public opinion researcher has a series of excellent posts here, here, and here on the electoral college. Here’s the start: The Electoral College has been in the news recently. I [Weakliem] am going to write a post about public opinion on the Electoral College vs. popular vote, but I was diverted into […]

## How to approach a social science research problem when you have data and a couple different ways you could proceed?

tl;dr: Someone asks me a question, I can’t really tell what he’s talking about, so I offer some generic advice. Joe Hoover writes: An issue has come up in my subsequent analyses, which uses my MrsP estimates to explore the relationship between county-level moral values and the county-level distribution of hate groups, as defined by […]

## An interview with Tina Fernandes Botts

Hey—this is cool! What happened was, I was scanning this list of Springbrook High School alumni. And I was like, Tina Fernandes? Class of 1982? I know that person. We didn’t know each other well, but I guess we must have been in the same homeroom a few times? All I can remember from back […]

## Understanding how Anova relates to regression

Analysis of variance (Anova) models are a special case of multilevel regression models, but Anova, the procedure, has something extra: structure on the regression coefficients. As I put it in the rejoinder for my 2005 discussion paper: ANOVA is more important than ever because we are fitting models with many parameters, and these parameters can […]

## Surgeon promotes fraudulent research that kills people; his employer, a leading hospital, defends him and attacks whistleblowers. Business as usual.

Paul Alper writes: A couple of time at my suggestion, you’ve blogged about Paulo Macchiarini. Here is an update from Susan Perry in which she interviews the director of the Swedish documentary about Macchiarini: Indeed, Macchiarini made it sound as if his patients had recovered their health when, in fact, the synthetic tracheas he had […]

## Most Americans like big businesses.

Tyler Cowen asks: Why is there so much suspicion of big business? Perhaps in part because we cannot do without business, so many people hate or resent business, and they love to criticize it, mock it, and lower its status. Business just bugs them. . . . The short answer is, No, I don’t think […]

## Mister P for surveys in epidemiology — using Stan!

Jon Zelner points us to this new article in the American Journal of Epidemiology, “Multilevel Regression and Poststratification: A Modelling Approach to Estimating Population Quantities From Highly Selected Survey Samples,” by Marnie Downes, Lyle Gurrin, Dallas English, Jane Pirkis, Dianne Currier, Matthew Spittal, and John Carlin, which begins: Large-scale population health studies face increasing difficulties […]