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Archive of posts filed under the Decision Theory category.

Pele wins. On to the semifinals!

Like others, I’m sad that Veronica Geng is out of the running, so I’ll have to go with Diana: Jonathan’s post-hoc argument for Geng was so good that I now have to vote for Pele, given that his name can be transformed into Geng’s through a simple row matrix operation (a gesture that just might […]

Pele vs. Meryl Streep; Riad Sattouf advances

Yesterday Dzhaughn gave a complicated argument but ultimately I couldn’t figure out if it was pro- or anti-Geng, so I had to go with Dalton’s straight shot: Geng has been accused of being “subtle to the point of unintelligibility.” So apparently ole V puts the “b” in subtle. So here’s to our man, Riad who […]

Riad Sattouf (1) vs. Veronica Geng; Bruce Springsteen advances

Personally, I’d rather hear Dorothy Parker, but I had to go with Dalton’s pitch: Ah, but Dorothy Parker is actually from New Jersey. In fact, both Bruce and Dorothy are members of the official New Jersey hall of fame (https://njhalloffame.org/hall-of-famers/). Both were born in Long Branch, NJ. But Bruce is backed up (literally) by another […]

Dorothy Parker (2) vs. Bruce Springsteen (1); the Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest advances

Dalton made an impressive argument, too complicated to summarize, in favor of Jim Thorpe, “the destroyer of hot dog vendors,” but this was countered by Thomas’s logic: Since Jim Thorpe is top dog in whatever he tries his hand at, his demise is now inevitable. And ultimately I had to go with Albert, who made […]

R package for Type M and Type S errors

Andy Garland Timm writes: My package for working with Type S/M errors in hypothesis testing, ‘retrodesign’, is now up on CRAN. It builds on the code provided by Gelman and Carlin (2014) with functions for calculating type S/M errors across a variety of effect sizes as suggested for design analysis in the paper, a function […]

Jim Thorpe (1) vs. the Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest

OK, now it starts to get interesting . . . Again, we’re trying to pick the best seminar speaker. Here are the rules and here’s the bracket so far:

Junk science + Legal system = Disaster

Javier Benitez points us to this horrifying story from Liliana Segura: “Junk Arson Science Sent Claude Garrett to Prison for Murder 25 Years Ago. Will Tennessee Release him?”

Meryl Streep advances; it’s down to the quarterfinals!

As Manuel put it, as Stephen Hawking might put it: It’s duets with Pierce Brosnan all the way down.

LeBron James (3) vs. Meryl Streep; Pele advances

Yesterday I was gonna go with Turing following Dalton’s eloquent argument: To his credit, Pele didn’t have to play in the era of VAR (video assistant referees). As last Tuesday’s Champions League game between Paris – Saint Germain and Manchester United (as well as the recent World Cup final between Croatia and France) demonstrate, there […]

Alan Turing (4) vs. Pele; Veronica Geng advances

I gotta go with Geng, based on this from Jonathan: I was all in on Geng, as you know, but I have no idea what she sounded like. But it’s not the voice is it? It’s the content. And listen to what Geng could do (Remorse, April 7, 1986) “I will also spend one hundred […]

Veronica Geng vs. Nora Ephron; Riad Sattouf advances

Not much going on in yesterday‘s Past vs. Future battle. Maybe we should’ve brought in Michael J. Fox as a guest judge . . . Anyway, the best argument in the comments came from Ethan: Since we can’t have Mr P let’s have Mr B. Ahhh, but we can have Mr P. We can always […]

Riad Sattouf (1) vs. Mel Brooks; Bruce Springsteen advances

Dalton crisply solved yesterday’s problem right away with, The real test is would you rather have Bruce Springsteen cook for you or have Julia Child sing to you? To ask this question is to answer it. I didn’t even read any comments after that one. Today’s matchup is more exciting. It’s The Arab of the […]

“Abandon / Retire Statistical Significance”: Your chance to sign a petition!

Valentin Amrhein, Sander Greenland, and Blake McShane write: We have a forthcoming comment in Nature arguing that it is time to abandon statistical significance. The comment serves to introduce a new special issue of The American Statistician on “Statistical inference in the 21st century: A world beyond P < 0.05”. It is titled "Retire Statistical […]

Julia Child (2) vs. Bruce Springsteen (1); Dorothy Parker advances

Yesterday it was Dorothy Parker in a landslide. Commenters just couldn’t resist dissing the Wild and Crazy Guy. Noah came in with a limerick: There once was a Martin named Steven whose humor we used to believe in. His outlook got starker. He’s no Dorothy Parker. In this matchup, then, Steven be leavin’. And Dzhaughn […]

(back to basics:) How is statistics relevant to scientific discovery?

Someone pointed me to this remark by psychology researcher Daniel Gilbert: Publication is not canonization. Journals are not gospels. They are the vehicles we use to tell each other what we saw (hence “Letters” & “proceedings”). The bar for communicating to each other should not be high. We can decide for ourselves what to make […]

Steve Martin (4) vs. Dorothy Parker (2); the Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest advances

The culinary athlete wins this round courtesy of this sonnet from Jeff: Does not the dude of Japanese descent Who won the eating contest have a name? He does, of course, but thanks to that event We ponder on the stuff of Nathan’s fame. What kind of man, in glint of morning, thinks “This day […]

Yes on design analysis, No on “power,” No on sample size calculations

Kevin Lewis points us to this paper, “Sample-Size Planning for More Accurate Statistical Power: A Method Adjusting Sample Effect Sizes for Publication Bias and Uncertainty,” by Samantha Anderson, Ken Kelley, and Scott Maxwell. My reaction: Yes, it’s reasonable, but I have two big problems with the general approach: 1. I don’t like talk of power […]

Albert Brooks vs. the Japanese dude who won the hot dog eating contest; Jim Thorpe advances

Best argument yesterday came from Jonathan: Thorpe was played in the movies by Burt Lancaster. Caesar was played by Joseph Bologna. Ham vs bologna? Thorpe. Also, Thorpewards. Today the contest is between two people who, a commenter reminded us last round, both have names. Wit or creative eating? Your call. Again, here are the rules […]

Round 3 begins: Jim Thorpe (1) vs. Sid Caesar

Today’s contest is a tough call. Caesar is the king of live TV, a real originator—but he did not write his own material, so it could be risky to invite him without getting Carl Reiner, Woody Allen, etc., as support staff. Thorpe is a legend but probably not much of a performer. Both Caesar and […]

Meryl Streep advances and the second round is over!

Best comment yesterday came from Dalton: Yakov Smirnoff’s relevance died with the Soviet Union. And he knows it, which is why he’s apparently now giving motivational talks entitled “Happily Ever Laughter: The Neuroscience of Romantic Relationships”. You can even watch in on PBS: https://www.pbssocal.org/programs/yakov-smirnoffs-happily-ever-laughter/ When I want to experience breathlessly credulous regurgitation of bullshit science […]