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“False-positive psychology” Believe the statistics, not your lying eyes

A previous discussion with Charles Murray about liberals, conservatives, and social class

Posted on February 16, 2012 10:25 PM by Andrew

From 2.5 years ago. Read all the comments; the discussion is helpful.

This entry was posted in Political Science by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.
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  1. Seth Finkelstein on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 5:32 PM

    Joshua: I fully understand the objections. But, pragmatically, I just don't want to do hedging about very minor near-theoretical categorizations,…

  2. Seth Finkelstein on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 5:06 PM

    This does not contradict what I said. Further, it's missing the point. Look, Trump has been around New York for…

  3. Andrew on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 4:55 PM

    John: Oh, sure, there will always be particular elections and geographic areas where small voter groups will matter, and I…

  4. Seth Finkelstein on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 4:53 PM

    Alexandre: I have no idea how you derived "are you saying "progressive cosmology" (whatever that is) is "literally Nazi" "…

  5. Olaf Zimmermann on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 4:43 PM

    An affinity to Tom Lehrer and Randy Newman cannot be denied. (And I never implied 'just' or 'merely' ...)

  6. John G Williams on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 4:33 PM

    We can agree that the Jewish vote doesn't matter in national elections, but how about state or local elections? Is…

  7. Jonathan (another one) on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 4:10 PM

    Seconding Joshua here. And I like the term cognitive empathy.

  8. Joshua on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 3:59 PM

    Anonymous - > "let's apply this standard to Vladimir Putin, for example..." I think that's a worthwhile exercise with Putin,…

  9. Andrew on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 3:31 PM

    Olaf: I'm not just a statistician. I also teach in the political science department!

  10. Olaf Zimmermann on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 2:32 PM

    So it takes a statistician to do a sociologist's job, when in the past it was a mathematician's toil? (cue…

  11. Anonymous on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 1:50 PM

    “Or perhaps by addressing seriously the underlying rationale of those inflicting the casualties in a way that appeals to them,…

  12. Jonathan (another one) on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 12:38 PM

    Matt: How about just by expressing displeasure with casualties, which is of course something even the people who have inflicted…

  13. Dale Lehman on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 12:37 PM

    Simple. I'm Jewish and the Israeli treatment of Palestinians is inhumane and unethical. I'd use the word "genocide" but it…

  14. Matt Skaggs on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 12:29 PM

    Seth, You seem to have a good handle on this coded language stuff, maybe you can help me out here.…

  15. Anonymous on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 11:07 AM

    False. Trump has been regularly condemed for his antisemitism. https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/donald-trump-anti-semitism-young-jews-214314/ https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/17/politics/trump-anti-semitic-comments/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/10/17/trump-history-antisemitic-tropes/ https://www.huffpost.com/entry/donald-trump-speech-comment-condemned_n_686786f9e4b0eb2c5aed2fa5

  16. Mr. T. Cohen on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 10:58 AM

    I have always been dumbfounded by the interest in the Jewish vote in the US. Thanks for the history lesson…

  17. Alexandre on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 10:53 AM

    are you saying "progressive cosmology" (whatever that is) is "literally Nazi" whereas actual Nazis (like pege hegseth or elon musk…

  18. 9p on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 10:44 AM

    AAAnom: "Girls" is used as an example of a category. That's it. The ovary line you highlight literally says right…

  19. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 10:29 AM

    Happy to wind it up, but thank you for engaging. In the end I think you’ve both kind of demonstrated…

  20. Joshua on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 10:22 AM

    Andrew - Here's something that might serve as an interesting parallel. I work with non-native speakers often, and I've had…

  21. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 10:20 AM

    Happy to wind it up, but thank you for engaging. In the end I think you’ve both kind of demonstrated…

  22. Seth Finkelstein on People sometimes talk about “the Jewish vote,” but what’s relevant is not really the Jewish vote or Jewish public opinion; it’s really about campaign contributions and the news media. Also similar with Mormons.July 26, 2026 10:13 AM

    There is some very strange stuff (at least to me) going on now with Republicans vs Democrats coalitions and Jews…

  23. Chris on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 9:29 AM

    Yes possibly we might need to tie this up Andrew, although I wouldn't say that we're delving particularly deep into…

  24. Anonymous on Pretty maps of the NY mayoral election vote. (The meta-point here is that people have a (false) intuition that any complicated piece of information can be conveyed in a single plot.)July 26, 2026 9:28 AM

    I am from Brooklyn near Gateway National Recreation Area, I l believe its official name. Floyd Bennet Field, a big…

  25. Joshua on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 9:15 AM

    Andrew - I'm certain the authors recognize the difference between saying "girls like pink," "those girls like pink," and "this…

  26. AAAnonymous on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 7:37 AM

    I've lost track of the days. I don't know which day it exactly is anymore. It's all becoming a blur.…

  27. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 7:35 AM

    Speaking of blog etiquette, I’m conscious that we could be straining what is appropriate as we delve deep into the…

  28. Chris on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 7:13 AM

    In my example "those girls" referred to the group of girls playing 5-a-side football that the adult and child were…

  29. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 6:40 AM

    I’m pretty sure you’re not being rude Chris, but I may not be up to date on blog etiquette… I’d…

  30. Chris on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 6:24 AM

    I'm going to be rude and respond to your response to Joshua. On your comment: Taking their very first example,…

  31. Chris on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 6:03 AM

    Thanks Andrew, I’ve found your examples (the first one was on p 3 and not p 2!). I'm also posting…

  32. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 26, 2026 5:17 AM

    Thanks Joshua, and all very sensible. If you do have a bit more interest in how individualism manifests in social…

  33. Vicente Iglesias on Survey Statistics: poststratification without population level informationJuly 26, 2026 2:52 AM

    What I’ve always somewhat thought is missed with post stratification which is often difficult to fully adjust for is that…

  34. Other Andrew on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 26, 2026 2:37 AM

    Yeah I think that’s very reasonable. Authors are responsible for microscopic details and for making them in principle reproducible. Reviewer…

  35. Joshua on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 9:30 PM

    Andrew - From where I sit, not being terribly familiar with the field, the authors' thesis seems plausible to me.…

  36. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 6:47 PM

    Hi Chris, and happy to be more specific: -- P. 2 – “Researchers distinguish two broad essentialist assumptions…” -- P.…

  37. AAAnonymous on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 2:32 PM

    Joshua, I was just trying to provide an answer to your question. A combination of certain other comments and my…

  38. Chris on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 25, 2026 2:00 PM

    Yes good points. When asked to do a review of a paper, which often comes with a request to submit…

  39. Chris on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 1:25 PM

    I had another look at this paper and it actually seems pretty straightforward. The bottom line is that the authors…

  40. Rodney Sparapani on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 25, 2026 1:07 PM

    There are two aspects of the review that are at odds: timeliness vs. thoroughness. First of all, many reviews have…

  41. Joshua on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 12:39 PM

    AAAnonymous - I haven't read the paper myself, so I can only go by the passage you quoted. Working from…

  42. Joshua on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 11:52 AM

    Andrew - Thanks for the response. I can't get past the paywall, and honestly I'm not that interested in digging…

  43. Andrew Frain on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 10:16 AM

    Thank you Joshua and Chris. I’ll first reiterate that I respect where the authors’ hearts appear to be, and that…

  44. Chris on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 25, 2026 9:57 AM

    I totally agree Andrew, publications live or die according to post publication perusal whether this is replication, extension by advancing…

  45. Andrew on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 25, 2026 9:51 AM

    Dale, Chris: I agree that reviews add value. For reasons of efficiency, I prefer post-publication review rather than pre-publication review,…

  46. Chris on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 25, 2026 9:45 AM

    Reviewers are gatekeepers to some extent and it depends on the journal. If I'm reviewing a paper for a top…

  47. Dale Lehman on I don’t see journal review as a gatekeeping process that will keep erroneous articles from being publishedJuly 25, 2026 9:40 AM

    I don't think you should absolve reviewers or editors of responsibility. Ultimately an author is responsible for what they do…

  48. Chris on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 6:31 AM

    Andrew, I agree that the paper blurs the distinction between categorisation and essentialism (the “girl” example posted on a couple…

  49. AAAnonymous on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 5:08 AM

    @Joshua: You wrote "Could you explain how this treatment blurs the line between categorization and essentialism? Is it in the…

  50. AAAnonymous on How generic language shapes the development of social thoughtJuly 25, 2026 4:18 AM

    Another morning, another coffee, another example of why I seem to have a hard time with reading and understanding this…

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