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Models for cumulative probabilities Difficulties in communication with non-Bayesians

The story of Track and Trig, or blue parents who name with red values

Posted on September 26, 2008 12:53 PM by Andrew

Laura Wattenberg writes, “in baby naming as in so many parts of life, style, not values, is the guiding light.”

This entry was posted in Sociology by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.
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  1. Andrew on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 7:25 PM

    Thomas: I thought of Joseph Stalin right away. Indeed, it's easy to think of evildoers and assign them to names;…

  2. Thomas Lumley on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 7:18 PM

    There's also a problem that we don't index recent famous people by given name as much. For example, allowing for…

  3. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 6:58 PM

    Tris, thanks for the clarifications, we are in fact exactly on the same page.

  4. Andrew on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 6:55 PM

    Thomas: Wow, that's a great set of categories I've never thought of before: What are the two worst people named…

  5. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 6:53 PM

    Daniel, this is exactly why PFR does not stand alone. It is paired with the Principle of Epistemic Sufficiency (PES).…

  6. Thomas Lumley on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 6:00 PM

    I have him as a "top two" in regrettable people named Thomas -- the other contender is Thomas of Monmouth,…

  7. John G Williams on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 5:50 PM

    I'm old enough to remember when Cutter Labs made a bad batch of the Salk vaccine, which was made of…

  8. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 5:14 PM

    Tris, Yes I can see how these architectural restrictions can work if what you're worried about is chatbots writing code,…

  9. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 4:24 PM

    Daniel, they don't need to fill a single page, let alone an encyclopedia. Look at how firearm safety actually works…

  10. Andrew on “Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)”July 22, 2026 4:07 PM

    David: Interesting point you make about the triangles. Another way in which probability is more complicated than geometry is that…

  11. Dale Lehman on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 3:45 PM

    Daniel I am not contributing to the ill-health of my students, unless you want to stick to the extreme position…

  12. Matt Skaggs on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 3:13 PM

    There is one scenario that might explain the hand-washing bit. He was probably aware of the toxicity of lead, and…

  13. AAAnonymous on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 3:06 PM

    Mr. Gelman: To be clear, I also don’t think evil people are evil in everything they do. I guess that…

  14. Andrew on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 2:09 PM

    Aaa: To be fair, I don't think evil people are evil in everything they do. I guess that a quick…

  15. Andrew on “A medical journal says the case reports it has published for 25 years are, in fact, fiction”July 22, 2026 2:05 PM

    John, I agree with you. At least, if I were a doctor, that's what I'd want to read. But there…

  16. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 2:03 PM

    Please note so its clear, I dont put any blame on Bob or Dale for any of this, its 100%…

  17. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 1:34 PM

    Tris, suppose a chatbot has 100,000 tokens of context, and there are 200,000 tokens in its language, then there are…

  18. AAAnonymous on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 1:13 PM

    Quote from above: "If only there was language to describe a potentially large and complicated set of policies and analyze…

  19. Anoneuoid on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 12:58 PM

    Yea that wikipedia page is also very weaselly. He performed the stunt then took a leave of absence some unspecified…

  20. somebody on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 12:50 PM

    According to wikipedia On October 30, 1924, Midgley participated in a press conference to demonstrate the apparent safety of TEL,…

  21. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 12:50 PM

    David, Daniel, I am reminded of Mickey Day's SNL sketches "Terzano's" and "Domenico" where you being "a little confused" actually…

  22. Proxomitron on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 11:52 AM

    If he was exposed to real danger, it makes him a bad person, for harming many others (even if he…

  23. AAAnonymous on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 11:48 AM

    Quote from above: "Like maybe, implement some kind of screening processes and background checks?" I am not an academic, so…

  24. Anoneuoid on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 11:47 AM

    These "stunts" (actually forcing people to dogfood their own chemicals is a good idea) are a good idea and seems…

  25. Proxomitron on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 11:25 AM

    Leaded gasoline is very bad for everybody, and it was know to Midgley at the time. By performing his stunt…

  26. somebody on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 11:07 AM

    I must say I think it’s refreshing to hear a bit more of this on this blog in recent months…

  27. Lurking_Nutrition_Scientist on Was this USDA survey really “redundant, costly, politicized, and extraneous”?July 22, 2026 10:50 AM

    As someone working in this space, and impacted by HR1, no, there is no other equivalent. There are a few…

  28. Anoneuoid on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 10:24 AM

    The ill effects of ingested lead [...] washed his hands in a can of TEL at a press conference, claiming…

  29. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 10:14 AM

    Tris, yes I understand the theory youre arguing for, I think... You want the chatbot to be prevented ahead of…

  30. AAAnonymous on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 9:47 AM

    Quote from the blog post: "I guess that the world is full of evil people and always will be. The…

  31. Tim on Survey Statistics: Poststratification ?July 22, 2026 9:47 AM

    One could always use the Survey package in R, a favorite, to apply weights to a design object. Some datasets…

  32. Dale Lehman on He “washed his hands in a can of tetraethyl lead at a press conference, claiming he was ‘not taking any chance whatever’. He knew this to be a lie, having already succumbed to a bout of lead poisoning.”July 22, 2026 9:21 AM

    Do you think that the way our political system works (start with campaign financing and then move on) increases the…

  33. Anonymous on Was this USDA survey really “redundant, costly, politicized, and extraneous”?July 22, 2026 6:58 AM

    Justifying cutting programs because food insecurity stayed stable despite an 87% increase in SNAP spending from 2019-2023 is like concluding…

  34. David Spiegelhalter on “Why probability probably doesn’t exist (but it is useful to act like it does)”July 22, 2026 5:40 AM

    I am very sorry that I missed this discussion when it was going on, but hope it isn’t too late…

  35. David, a Bostonian in Tokyo on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 5:14 AM

    Tris; Even I can't figure out what you are talking about. (Aside: I strongly recommend Jerry Fodor's book "In Critical…

  36. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 3:54 AM

    Daniel, this is the difference between a physical consequence and an epistemic boundary. When Mad Mike crashed, gravity was the…

  37. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 3:08 AM

    Anonymous, ah, the response looked too refined and academic for a public forum. I have actually written a few posts…

  38. Seth Finkelstein on Ted-talking University of California professor asks sex trafficker for $3,000,000 because he thinks there’s a “50% chance” he’ll make “important discoveries” in telepathyJuly 22, 2026 2:13 AM

    Phil: Without commenting on the larger issues, the paragraphs made sense to me. It might help to know there's a…

  39. John Quiggin on Ted-talking University of California professor asks sex trafficker for $3,000,000 because he thinks there’s a “50% chance” he’ll make “important discoveries” in telepathyJuly 22, 2026 12:41 AM

    I was just thinking about whether belief in religious miracles predisposes people to false belief more generally. Probably not for…

  40. John Quiggin on “A medical journal says the case reports it has published for 25 years are, in fact, fiction”July 22, 2026 12:34 AM

    Seems bizarre to add the supposed verisimilitude of a case study. Why not just write something like: "a typical case…

  41. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 22, 2026 12:14 AM

    Extremely relevant headline from today! OpenAI autonomous bots hacked the HuggingFace site and stole data from HuggingFace https://www.engadget.com/2220436/openai-admits-models-hacked-hugging-face-on-their-own/ As Christine…

  42. Anonymous on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 11:01 PM

    Tris, your most recent comment in this thread looks like it was written by AI. The list format and then…

  43. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 10:31 PM

    Joshua, that is a crucial clarification, and it highlights exactly how these systems can be used safely. You are engaging…

  44. Jessica Hullman on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 9:25 PM

    Anon - This kind of thing is discussed in my more recent posts on AI reviewing and multiverse analysis: https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/06/24/treating-ai-review-like-the-contentious-policy-design-problem-it-is/…

  45. Joshua on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 7:51 PM

    Tris - I just wanted to narrow focus to one point you made. Above I said I can use an…

  46. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 7:51 PM

    Tris, there was a guy who wanted to prove the earth was flat by shooting himself into the air with…

  47. Joshua on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 7:33 PM

    Bob - Reading this from you reminds me of what I wanted to say in response to David's exchange with…

  48. Tris Simondsen on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 6:43 PM

    Dale, Bob, I share your hope that these systems never gain unconstrained autonomy but relying on "accidental failure" (hallucinations and…

  49. Daniel Lakeland on Forking paths in LLMs for data analysisJuly 21, 2026 6:38 PM

    When I have a video conference with Bob Carpenter and we discuss how we're going to analyze some data and…

  50. Olaf Zimmermann on Was this USDA survey really “redundant, costly, politicized, and extraneous”?July 21, 2026 6:35 PM

    It is the hallmark of any insecure government that it tries to keep its citizens ill-informed and insecure. (cf. Bertrand…

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