From the latest news:

The most unpredictable race for mayor that New York City has seen in decades barreled into its final week on Tuesday, as Zohran Mamdani and former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo hunted the five boroughs for a late advantage with hundreds of thousands of ballots already cast.

Mr. Mamdani, a 34-year-old state lawmaker, remains the clear front-runner for City Hall after upsetting Mr. Cuomo in June’s Democratic primary. . . .

More than 223,000 New Yorkers cast their ballots in the first three days of early voting. If that pace holds, the city could be on for the highest turnout general election in since 1993. . . .

The biggest challenge for Mr. Cuomo may be Curtis Sliwa, the Republican. . . . every vote he gets diminishes Mr. Cuomo’s chances of winning.

In retrospect, maybe Cuomo would’ve been better off running in the Republican rather than the Democratic primary.

The thing that bugs me, though, is the claim that this is “he most unpredictable race for mayor that New York City has seen in decades.”

Do New York Times reporters have no memory? Here’s the result from the last mayoral election:

50.4% to 49.6% . . . you can’t get much closer or more unpredictable than that!

OK, there is one difference: right now we’re talking about the general election for mayor, and the Adams/Garcia race four years ago was the primary election. It would be fair to say that this year is the most unpredictable general election for mayor that New York City has seen in a bit over two decades, the most unpredictable since Michael Bloomberg defeated the now-forgotten Mark Green, 50.3% to 47.9%. That one really was unpredictable–as I recall, Green was considered the favorite before the World Trade Center attacks in September of that year. There was also 2009, where Bloomberg defeated another now-forgotten politician, Bill Thompson: the vote margin was only 50.7% to 46.3%, which is kinda close, but I think the outcome was generally predicted.

But “the most unpredictable race for mayor that New York City has seen in decades”? Nah. This year’s election is less unpredictable than the 2021 race.

P.S. To say that the 2025 election is less predictable than 2021 is not to say that we know what will happen! As the news article correctly says, Mamdani is favored, but uncertainty remains, especially regarding turnout.