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After-work socializing . . . alcohol . . . car crashes? PPL Workshop this Friday (29 July 2022)

The Playroom!

Posted on July 26, 2022 9:40 AM by Andrew

Angie shares this photo from 2019:

I love the larger-than-life image of Aki in the background.

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Matt Skaggs on Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:August 2, 2026 4:54 PM
Oops, bungled that. It should have read that the modern warming is due to LESS reflection of solar shortwave.
Matt Skaggs on Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:August 2, 2026 3:50 PM
"the well understood physics side of it (more greenhouse gases blocking IR emissions requires the temperature to rise for fairly…
Andrew on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 2, 2026 2:43 PM
Dan: I guess that describes some cheaters, but not others. Mark Hauser, Brian Wansink, Matthew Walker, and Dan Ariely all…
Dan Goldstein on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 2, 2026 1:12 PM
Makes sense! That's what I was speculating. Cheaters may cheat for some local goal (enough papers to get tenure) but…
Patrick on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?August 2, 2026 11:54 AM
Sad to hear that Higashino passed away. His books have sold over 100M copies worldwide, roughly twice that of Jo…
anonymous on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 2, 2026 9:39 AM
I suspect in terms of pedagogy it's important when working with nonlinear outcomes to always get students to translate back…
Tom Passin on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 11:14 PM
I think the point is that with small effect sizes, it's almost impossible to know if the effect is real…
paul alper on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 10:50 PM
My excuse is that I am old so that this secrete handshake went right past me: "Mary Rosh, who surely…
David, a Bostonian in Tokyo on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?August 1, 2026 4:54 PM
Life expectancy at 65 (in Japan) is 86 years, so we're doing 16 years better, 3400 years later. Of course,…
Eric Loken on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 2:36 PM
On the fraudsters discussion - there's an interesting case in the world of high school math contests. Fraudsters want to…
Anonymous on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 1:11 PM
I’m surprised that ‘Bad papers that get no intention aren’t doing much damage’ didn’t get your attention.
Matt Skaggs on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 12:35 PM
" If we find one case where an e-bike leads to an irresponsible riding and a death, then we ban…
paul alper on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 12:05 PM
A typo "An treatment that has an effect" should be Any treatment that has an effect
Dale Lehman on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 11:44 AM
Matt Yes, I find your example truly bizarre. It is not hard to get an empirical study to show that…
Meese on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 11:36 AM
"... imperfectly understood confidence intervals are more useful and less dangerous than incorrectly understood P values and hypothesis tests.” JM…
Will on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 11:13 AM
Most undergrad econometrics courses go out of their way to make the distinction between statistical significance and economic significance. In…
Will on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 11:08 AM
And if a net negative result means that a single excess rape was prevented due to porn, would you encourage…
Meese on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 10:56 AM
Seconding Dale that ignoring effect size is indefensible, but for a different reason: you want to make falsifiable predictions. To…
Matt Skaggs on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 10:53 AM
I don't disagree with the points you and Andrew are making (FWIW), but caution is advised about blanket statements. I'm…
Dale Lehman on Why quantitative understanding of effect sizes matters, even if all you care about is the presence of the effectAugust 1, 2026 10:06 AM
Ignoring effect size is indefensible. Suppose you are "only" interested in whether the effect exists - e.g., does news about…
Moses on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?August 1, 2026 7:50 AM
Psalms 90 10 (circa 1400 BCE): The days of our years are threescore years and ten; and if by reason…
David, a Bostonian in Tokyo on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?July 31, 2026 10:07 PM
Speaking of bestsellers, the bestseller number one in Japan last week (according the July 25 Ashahi Shinbun) was: ___DRUM ROLL___…
Anonymous on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?July 31, 2026 8:53 PM
If this story is true "the legend of log(NAICS)" then the econometrics folks have some credibility problems. The claim is…
David, a Bostonian in Tokyo on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?July 31, 2026 8:46 PM
Maybe "bestseller" isn't the right metric. Maybe "long seller" is a better one. Here's something I wrote on Mastodon the…
Dale Lehman on What do we learn from bestseller regressions?July 31, 2026 2:45 PM
I think this is just the difference between the demand for a product and the demand for an individual brand…
Carlos Ungil on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 31, 2026 3:31 AM
By the way, I suggested “parametric bootstrap” as a less wordy substitute for the “point estimate model simulation” part of…
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October 7, 2023 appears to have had a big impact on rich Jewish donors. It's easy to look up the…
Carlos Ungil on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 6:25 PM
Ok, maybe we all agree (including our present and past selves) that when you sample using plug-in parameter estimates it…
Andrew on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 6:10 PM
Carlos: What I wrote then is consistent with what I am writing now. The parametric bootstrap is a technique that…
Carlos Ungil on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 5:29 PM
> My impression is that bootstrapping is usually considered as a method for getting the distribution of parameter estimates. In…
confused on Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:July 30, 2026 5:23 PM
Yes, I think there's a very important difference between the well understood physics side of it (more greenhouse gases blocking…
Anonymous AI slop policeman on “Over-coverage caught by pre-registration: 47 of 56 inside a stated 50% interval”July 30, 2026 5:21 PM
The parts of this post attributed to Malinowski were in fact generated by AI. A nice test of Pangram’s new…
confused on Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:July 30, 2026 5:18 PM
@Joshua: I fear that the necessary time lag between reduced CO2 emissions and temperature effects being visible means that "purely"…
confused on Out of the frying pan and into the fire: Scientific American returned to form, and then this happened:July 30, 2026 5:13 PM
I think more of them are honest (though wrong) than you think. The effects of global warming may be extremely…
Carlos Ungil on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 4:46 PM
> The “posterior” came in because . . . I was averaging over the posterior distribution of the parameter rather…
Sung J. Woo on Eleven Kinds of Loneliness: Richard Yates and the tragedy of agencyJuly 30, 2026 4:43 PM
Hello Andrew, always great to meet another Yates fan! Entirely too few of us, that's for sure. Drawing a parallel…
Andrew on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 4:42 PM
Carlos: My impression is that bootstrapping is usually considered as a method for getting the distribution of parameter estimates. In…
Andrew on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 4:39 PM
Carlos: As I wrote, it's a generalization of the plug-in approach. The "posterior" came in because . . . I…
jd on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 3:50 PM
Nice! Just found the same link and was about to post.
Carlos Ungil on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 3:48 PM
I think that "parametric bootstrap" is a usual term when you sample using plug-in parameter estimates. [ https://web.universiteitleiden.nl/fsw/verduin/stathist/1stword.htm ] POSTERIOR…
jd on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 3:11 PM
Yeah does seem like it would be ‘point estimate model simulation checking’ or something less wordy but similar… Does anyone…
A frequent reader on Eleven Kinds of Loneliness: Richard Yates and the tragedy of agencyJuly 30, 2026 2:36 PM
Thanks for clarifying! I can see how the bleakness can hit harder if the dark fate was, indeed, avoidable.
Carlos Ungil on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 2:29 PM
> at the time I was thinking of it more as a generalization of the existing “plug-in” approach that would…
Andrew on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 2:20 PM
Jd: From my perspective, the origins of posterior predictive checking are: 1. The chi-squared test of model fit. This came…
Daniel Lakeland on He fit the same statistical models with three different software and got much different estimates. It’s another dimension of the multiverse.July 30, 2026 1:53 PM
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jd on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 1:50 PM
Are the origins of posterior predictive checking, Frequentist residual analysis?
Michael Minor on Posterior predictive checking is for non-Bayesians too!July 30, 2026 11:02 AM
Industrial statistics is embracing the spirit of posterior predictive checks. For example, JMP 18 added visualization of prediction intervals and…
Dale Lehman on “Archaeology can’t give social scientists population or GDP, but here are some things we can measure that might be useful for social science.”July 30, 2026 7:14 AM
Somewhat along the lines of this post - and quite in line with many posts over the years - is…
Seren Dipity on Eleven Kinds of Loneliness: Richard Yates and the tragedy of agencyJuly 30, 2026 1:20 AM
Andrew, if you can cope - seems you can - and like a good movie vaugely in the vein of…
Dale Lehman on Selection effects can go both ways (for taxi drivers as well as the rest of us)July 29, 2026 7:33 PM
Thanks, you got it! Part of my memory is intact.

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