Skip to primary content

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Search

Main menu

Home
Authors
Blogs We Read
Books
Sponsors

Post navigation

“Well, you didn’t really pay me enough money to do it correctly.” One other thing about Ann Birstein’s “What I Saw at the Fair”

Why do swing states matter?

Posted on October 2, 2008 6:50 PM by Andrew

Hey, I got quoted in the Weekly Reader! Much cooler than the Annals of Statistics.

This entry was posted in Political Science by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.

Art
Artificial Intelligence
Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference
Decision Analysis
Economics
Jobs
Literature
Miscellaneous Science
Miscellaneous Statistics
Multilevel Modeling
Obituaries
Papers
Political Science
Public Health
Sociology
Sports
Stan
Statistical Computing
Statistical Graphics
Teaching
Zombies

AAAnonymous on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 29, 2026 6:50 AM
Quote from above: "Universities often seem to be the worst culprits of playing up these narratives, despite being cringey for…
Robin Blythe on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 29, 2026 12:31 AM
Universities often seem to be the worst culprits of playing up these narratives, despite being cringey for many actual scientists.…
Andrew on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 29, 2026 12:17 AM
About ten years ago I spoke at a conference at Stanford about replicability of research. The talks were an uncomfortable…
Robin Blythe on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 11:56 PM
When I was a grad student at UCLA a decade ago, we had to endure repeated hagiographies in class of…
Thomas Lumley on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 10:00 PM
I was initially confused by the time to total variation accuracy epsilon not depending on epsilon (!), but I see…
Daniel Lakeland on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 6:37 PM
cool, I will have to look into those papers tomorrow. thanks for the high level overview.
Bob Carpenter on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 6:31 PM
Horowitz developed the generalized HMC algorithm that does partial momentum refresh in 1991: https://cds.cern.ch/record/222436/files/199110129.pdf Nobody could ever get it to…
Daniel Lakeland on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 6:01 PM
Specifically partway down that post I have q[i+1] = q[i] + dt p[i] p[i+1] = p[i] + dt F(q[i]) +…
Daniel Lakeland on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 5:49 PM
Fo I understand correctly that the dynamics is start at state S, with a position and velocity... take one time…
Andrew on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 5:24 PM
Bob (and Nawaf): This is interesting, and it reminds me that when I first heard of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo many…
Bob Carpenter on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 5:09 PM
I'll take responsibility here. I should always write "This post is from Bob" up top because otherwise people assume they're…
Anonymous on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 5:07 PM
Interesting...my experience is with deterministic linear algebra, where algorithm runtime depends on condition number in similar ways and for similar…
Andrew on OK, this is just weird (from Alaska Airlines)October 28, 2026 4:58 PM
Spencer: I believe that Alaska Airlines is trying to make money here, which is fine. But they're just people (and…
AAAnonymous on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 4:32 PM
"This might explain things as well: the paper has been mentioned on this blog here before, but the author of…
AAAnonymous on Bou-Rabee’s breakthrough paper, “Persistence Pays: Square-root condition-number dependence for Metropolis-adjusted kinetic Langevin Monte Carlo …”October 28, 2026 4:27 PM
Quote from the blog post: "The algorithm that Bou-Rabee analyzed was introduced by Radford Neal in the following paper, which…
Bob Carpenter on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 3:49 PM
Back when they were Facebook and the NY Times did investigative journalism, The NY Times covered a social media campaign…
Spencer on OK, this is just weird (from Alaska Airlines)October 28, 2026 3:19 PM
Alaska knows exactly what it's doing, down to the penny. And so does every other airline. They are all doing…
Joshua on Tension vs. excitement during NBA gamesOctober 28, 2026 12:49 PM
> The most direct form of this question: has it become more or less likely that the team trailing at…
Atomsk's Sanakan on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 12:44 PM
Maybe many of those reading the Law360 article suffer from Gell-Mann amnesia? I'll see myself out.
John N-G on Tension vs. excitement during NBA gamesOctober 28, 2026 11:33 AM
> Does it make sense that excitement and tension are positively correlated, but over time, excitement has slightly increased and…
Robin Blythe on Survey Statistics: how to measure hospital quality ?October 28, 2026 9:52 AM
In terms of terminology, standardisation would effectively be just a well-specified outcome regression model, right? I'm always a little unsure…
Jeff on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 9:48 AM
But it's an honor just to be nominated.
J. J. Ramsey on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 9:47 AM
"If in a two party system one party decides that from now on 2+2=5 while the other party maintais 2+2…
Gregory C. Mayer on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 9:37 AM
It's University-- Andrew's referring to the Jason Arday case.
Dale Lehman on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 9:23 AM
Anonymous Your comment is so far off I don't know where to begin. The conclusion that the "left" is unaware…
piglet42 on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 9:11 AM
Identifying partisan sorting with polarization is a weirdly American thing. In every other democracy, it has always been the case…
piglet42 on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 8:58 AM
"the increase in affective polarization (the usual term for it) doesn’t track the objective deterioration of the Republican Party" Might…
piglet42 on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 8:52 AM
Referring to the scientific consensus verified and confirmed by thousands of scientists over many decades as "unproven climate theories" is…
piglet42 on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 8:45 AM
Which botfarm did you escape from?
turn_of_the_90s on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 7:12 AM
Speaking of typos, I think you meant to write Cambridge Analytica and not Cambridge University.
AAAnonymous on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 6:50 AM
Social “me”-dia It erodes and waters down the me Perhaps in favor, of the particular flavor of the we It…
AAAnonymous on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 3:41 AM
Smoking can cause cancer. Social media can be cancer.
AAAnonymous on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 3:07 AM
"Dear professor Gellman, My name is um...Zark Muckerberg and I am um....a professor of economics. I am writing you about…
AAAnonymous on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 28, 2026 3:00 AM
Maybe the professor of economics who send an e-mail about some research concerning social media received some money from META…
Peter Dorman on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 28, 2026 1:19 AM
This gets rather weedy quickly, but the increase in affective polarization (the usual term for it) doesn't track the objective…
Anonymous on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 11:20 PM
I don't think policy preferences are diverging either! He cites surveys by Balz showing the opposite.
anonemone on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 11:17 PM
Not yet! But in e.g. interwar Germany, communists and fascists were brawling in the streets. The Communist party was one…
Anonymous on Thinking more seriously about the design of exploratory studies: A manifestoOctober 27, 2026 9:48 PM
The paper A Framework for Descriptive Epidemiology by Lesko, Fox, and Edwards (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10144679/) might be of interest.
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 9:44 PM
This discussion is about Democrats and Republicans, not "the left" or "the right," which of course are polarized by definition.…
Andrew on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 27, 2026 9:35 PM
Straight outta Brooklyn.
Eric Loken on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 27, 2026 9:32 PM
Someone’s going to take the L on this one.
Andrew on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 27, 2026 9:16 PM
Dorothy: Thanks. I removed the document as you requested. Also my name is spelled with just one l.
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 9:13 PM
By world standards we have one extreme party, one moderate left party, and the most powerful plutocrats. I fail to…
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 9:09 PM
Um. You don't think with all that's going on Ds *should* have a negative view of Rs -- that instead…
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 9:00 PM
sorry for the dupe Also, to my understanding, independent voters barely exist; again, that's a self-image but most of them…
Dorothy Atkins on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 27, 2026 8:55 PM
Hi Professor Gellman, Thanks this post. I've added your comments in this to my story. Just a note, Law360 stories…
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 8:51 PM
sorry for dupe
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 8:49 PM
OK, one reason I'm skeptical of that explanation is that the key graph depicts people's self-reports of whether they are…
Kyle C on Six questions about political polarization and my responsesOctober 27, 2026 8:41 PM
OK, one reason I'm skeptical of that explanation is that the key graph depicts people's self-reports of whether they are…
Will on We interrupt our usual programming to inform you that I was never hired by Facebook to do a hit job on Jonathan Haidt.October 27, 2026 8:34 PM
Maybe now you understand better why seeing one of my papers on this blog is a nightmare of mine! Or…

Proudly powered by WordPress