Skip to primary content

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Search

Main menu

Home
Authors
Blogs We Read
Books
Sponsors

Post navigation

A weblog for research in statistical modeling and applications, especially in social sciences

[1990] Estimating incumbency advantage without bias. American Journal of Political Science.

Posted on January 1, 1990 12:02 AM by Andrew

This entry was posted in Papers by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Comment *

Name

Email

Website

Δ

Art
Artificial Intelligence
Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference
Decision Analysis
Economics
Jobs
Literature
Miscellaneous Science
Miscellaneous Statistics
Multilevel Modeling
Obituaries
Papers
Political Science
Public Health
Sociology
Sports
Stan
Statistical Computing
Statistical Graphics
Teaching
Zombies

Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 8:40 PM
As I've thought about the Anoneouid comparison more... it's actually a really interesting comparison. My position was never a blanket…
Seth Finkelstein on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 8, 2026 8:20 PM
And being foiled by audit logs. Note the latest from the court case: Magistrate Judge Jessica D. Hedges: ELECTRONIC ORDER…
Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 8:06 PM
Anonymous— Since you've said this will probably be your last comment, let me just summarize where I think we're leaving…
Raphael Nishimura on Survey Statistics: toy example for energy balancing weightsJuly 8, 2026 7:58 PM
Interesting, thanks! I'll say I'm quite intrigued by that and will try it myself when I have tge opportunity.
Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 7:51 PM
Daniel - I appreciate that you've clarified your position. Earlier, I thought we disagreed about whether things like voluntary behavior,…
Andrew King on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 6:18 PM
Thank you all for posting. All very informative. My two cents are that knowingly publishing something that misleads is research…
Michael Friendly on Claude builds 3D Hamiltonian Monte Carlo animation in one shot with anaglyphsJuly 8, 2026 4:38 PM
On visualization in courses: I told students in my grad Categorical Data Analysis course, https://friendly.github.io/psy6136/ they could use AI for…
Jared Huling on Survey Statistics: toy example for energy balancing weightsJuly 8, 2026 3:50 PM
Somewhat counterintuitively, energy balancing can often have a comparable effective sample size as raking, but when it's much lower it's…
Jared Huling on Survey Statistics: toy example for energy balancing weightsJuly 8, 2026 3:49 PM
Hi Shira, I should say up front that I'm not an expert on survey sampling, so take all of this…
Raphael Nishimura on Survey Statistics: toy example for energy balancing weightsJuly 8, 2026 3:46 PM
I'm curious whether the weights produced by the energy balancing have more variability than the raked or post-stratified weights. Intuitively,…
Daniel Lakeland on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 2:49 PM
Joshua, To be fair, I don't disagree with the potential to write a fairly complex model incorporating all the things…
Anonymous on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 2:36 PM
This is depressing. It seems to me that professional association ethical rules often cover this terrain to an extent, but…
AAAnonymous on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 2:36 PM
Quote from above: "Where does this all stand relative to failing to correct or even doubling down on claims whilst…
Andrew on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 1:50 PM
Not: Regarding your last sentence: I give cheaters zero credit for "not holding themselves forth as paragons of virtue." What…
Not a paragon on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 1:19 PM
Where does this all stand relative to failing to correct or even doubling down on claims whilst representing oneself as…
Eric Pedersen on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 8, 2026 12:28 PM
Fair, and I noticed the issue confusing total energy vs. power (Joules vs. Watts) in the article, but I should…
AAAnonymous on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 11:51 AM
This is very complicated stuff in my view, and I reason 1) definitions, and 2) interpretations, and 3) being as…
Jonathan (another one) on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 11:44 AM
Your moral obligation is to not just to publish results you believe. If that were your only obligation, then fake…
Anon on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 11:13 AM
Yeah, I don't get that either. Fabricating data in the first place is surely also a conscious decision to mislead…
Alex on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 10:37 AM
I don't know that I have a strong feeling, but on its face "It suggests a conscious decision to leave…
Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 10:33 AM
Anonymous – As I think more about my last comment, and about the issue of mechanistic causal models, and thinking…
Anonymous on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 9:58 AM
“Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results?“ I think fabricating data is worse. Other people may use your fabricated data…
Chris on Is fabricating data worse than fabricating results? Is failing to correct a known false report more or less serious than making the false report in the first place?July 8, 2026 9:46 AM
I had a related circumstance many years (also decades) ago. I had completed my PhD and submitted a paper with…
Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 8:19 AM
Joshua, “Even if we were talking about two distinct kinds of interventions (which I don’t think we are, because mandatory…
AAAnonymous on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 8, 2026 8:00 AM
I imagine Gino hanging down from an open air duct opening, gently lowering herself down to her computer, wiping a…
Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 8, 2026 7:33 AM
Anonymous — You say: “The definition of a distinguishing prediction is: you find a prediction from both models on the…
Seth Finkelstein on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 8, 2026 3:03 AM
Paul: Thank you for that informative explanation. Though it still seems to me that King is being required here to…
Anoneuoid on Claude builds 3D Hamiltonian Monte Carlo animation in one shot with anaglyphsJuly 7, 2026 5:17 PM
Yep, everyone's just going to build their own custom solutions. These will have rough edges but, since they are for…
Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 2:52 PM
Joshua, you're sounding like a philosopher again. The definition of a distinguishing prediction is: you find a prediction from both…
Raghu Parthasarathy on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 2:42 PM
I struggle to take seriously a site (from NOAA, no less!) that writes "the total energy released from condensation is…
Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 1:17 PM
Anonymous - I agree that distinguishing predictions are important, but I think that's exactly the gap I'm pointing to. It…
shira on Survey Statistics: Big Changes in the Times/Siena PollJuly 7, 2026 1:15 PM
This is so great, Ben ! Thank you for sharing. Silly question, what do you mean by: Note that the…
Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 12:10 PM
Joshua, “What I’m trying to understand is some kind of frame for assessing whether this predictive success is genuinely diagnostic…
Joshua on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 11:42 AM
Daniel - Reading your last comment has helped me clarify my own thinking about where I'm getting stuck. I think…
Andrew on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:53 AM
Roy: You have to scroll down to the end, where there's this letter: I am distressed that the TLS published…
Daniel Lakeland on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 7, 2026 10:46 AM
Anoneuoid, I personally dont have the time to do this kind of model, but if you want to work on…
Roy on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:38 AM
I don't know about Dr. Tavris, but I now do know that maybe Serbia killed the Archduke. Perhaps the Times…
Daniel Lakeland on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 10:34 AM
David, I do argue that plagiarism is fraud. The problem with Plagiarism as an argument is its considered a "crime"…
Andrew on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:30 AM
I hadn't noticed! I'll try it.
Rodney Sparapani on A message for Carol TavrisJuly 7, 2026 10:22 AM
Is the email address on her CV working? https://tavris.socialpsychology.org/cv/Tavris-CV.2026.pdf
somebody on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 9:49 AM
2-body orbital mechanics is nonlinear, which creates sensitivity to initial conditions, but not chaotic
gec on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 8:43 AM
Now if only weather were comprised of spherical elastic cows in a vacuum, then we'd have something!
David, a Bostonian in Tokyo on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 4:38 AM
No! It's not fraud, it's plagiarism. You used the LLM's output and put your name, not the LLM's, on the…
Anonymous on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 7, 2026 1:59 AM
Sensitive dependence on initial conditions is used in orbital maneuvers in space to save fuel (usually at the cost of…
Anoneuoid on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 11:56 PM
R is the avg number of additional further infections caused by transmission from the infection of a given random newly…
Daniel Lakeland on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 7:38 PM
Joshua, I'd like to point you to this great lecture from 1977 by Donella Meadows, I link you to a…
Jonathan (another one) on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 6:09 PM
The notion that sensitive dependence to inital conditions is a controllable advantage seems like a fantasyland approach to me. I…
Anonymous on Supplement that alphabetized display with another graph showing the states in a more informative order.July 6, 2026 5:58 PM
Joshua, “Death curves sit even further from the intervention than mobility does, and yet you treated that short-term alignment as…
Eric Pedersen on Turning chaotic sensitivity from a bug into a feature: Using physical modeling and deep learning to alter the paths of storms and mitigate extreme weather eventsJuly 6, 2026 5:53 PM
I've seen previous work on dynamical systems indicating that chaotic systems are in some ways easier to control (I.e. lower…
Andrew on A new episode in the Francesca Gino caseJuly 6, 2026 4:17 PM
Dan: Yes, I linked to that. See PPS above. I don't think I have anything to add to that aspect…

Proudly powered by WordPress