The path to solving these problems involve figuring out how to collect better covariates to adjust for non-response bias than currently exist and are traditionally used in the survey industry, and more importantly, figuring out how to generate ground-truth estimates for those covariates for small areas so that any kind of post-stratification is possible. Moreover on the regression side, as non-response bias becomes a bigger problem (because phone response rates are plummeting and we’re moving to opt-in samples), the number of covariates and model sophistication can grow to a point where the traditional approach of linear models with deep interactions no longer is computationally feasible or statistically wise.

Obviously the status-quo of people doing polls and then using raking to generate weights is crazy, and it’d be an improvement over the status quo for them to move to MRP. But that transition isn’t actually going to fix the current structural issues with political polling that exist right now.

]]>Pool et al. did poststratification, but did they do multilevel regression? Supposedly Tukey et al. did multilevel modeling for election modeling in 1960, but this doesnʼt seem so relevant as I donʼt think they wrote any of it up. ]]>