The big story in yesterday’s election is that Donald Trump did about 2% better than predicted from the polls. Trump got 50% of the two-party vote (actually, according to the most recent count, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, just barely) but was predicted to get only 48%.
First let’s compare the 2016 election to 2012, state by state:
Now let’s look at how the 2016 election turned out, compared to the polls:
This is interesting. In the blue states (those won by Obama in 2012), Trump did about as well as predicted from the polls (on average, but not in the key swing states of Pennsylvania and Florida). But in the red states, Trump did much better than predicted.
P.S. More here.