On the TV they said that they were guessing that Clinton would win Florida in a close race and that North Carolina was too close to call.
Let’s run the numbers, Kremp:
> update_prob2(clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(52,2))) Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 95%
That’s good news for Clinton.
What if both states are tied?
> update_prob2(clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(50,2))) Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 90%
P.S. To be complete I should include all the states that were already called (KY, MA, etc.) but this would add essentially no information so I won’t bother.
OK, Ok, just to illustrate:
> update_prob2(trump_states=c("KY","IN"), clinton_states=c("IL","MA"), clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(50,2))) Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 90%
You see, no change.
P.P.S. What if Florida is close but Clinton loses there?
> update_prob2(trump_states=c("FL"), clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,2), "FL"=c(50,1))) Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 75% [nsim = 37716; se = 0.2%]
Her chance goes down to 75%. Still better than Trump’s 25%.
P.P.P.S. And what if NC and FL are both close but Trump wins both?
> update_prob2(trump_states=c("NC","FL"), clinton_normal=list("NC"=c(50,1), "FL"=c(50,1))) Pr(Clinton wins the electoral college) = 65%
Indispensable!
This may be a strange question, but you’re not my former congressman John Hall, are you? The odds are low I’m sure there are many John Halls but I’m just curious.
Nope. Lots of us John Halls.