I met Seth back in the early 1990s when we were both professors at the University of California. He sometimes came to the statistics department seminar and we got to talking about various things; in particular we shared an interest in statistical graphics. Much of my work in this direction eventually went toward the use […]

## Ken Rice presents a unifying approach to statistical inference and hypothesis testing

Ken Rice writes: In the recent discussion on stopping rules I saw a comment that I wanted to chip in on, but thought it might get a bit lost, in the already long thread. Apologies in advance if I misinterpreted what you wrote, or am trying to tell you things you already know. The comment […]

## Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification for Differential Equations!

Mark Girolami points us to this paper and software (with Oksana Chkrebtii, David Campbell, and Ben Calderhead). They write: We develop a general methodology for the probabilistic integration of differential equations via model based updating of a joint prior measure on the space of functions and their temporal and spatial derivatives. This results in a […]

## Crowdstorming a dataset

Raphael Silberzahn writes: Brian Nosek, Eric Luis Uhlmann, Dan Martin, and I just launched a project through the Open Science Center we think you’ll find interesting. The basic idea is to “Crowdstorm a Dataset”. Multiple independent analysts are recruited to test the same hypothesis on the same data set in whatever manner they see as […]

## On deck this week

Mon: Crowdstorming a dataset Tues: Ken Rice presents a unifying approach to statistical inference and hypothesis testing Wed: The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice? Thurs: Heller, Heller, and Gorfine on univariate and multivariate information measures Fri: Discovering general multidimensional associations Sat: “The graph clearly shows that […]

## Big Data…Big Deal? Maybe, if Used with Caution.

This post is by David K. Park As we have witnessed, the term “big data” has been thrusted onto the zeitgeist in the past several years, however, when one pushes beyond the hype, there seems to be little substance there. We’ve always had “data” so what so unique about it this time? Yes, we recognize it’s […]

## White stripes and dead armadillos

Paul Alper writes: For years I [Alper] have been obsessed by the color of the line which divides oncoming (i.e., opposing) traffic because I was firmly convinced that the color of the center line changed during my lifetime. Yet, I never could find anyone who had the same remembrance (or interest in the topic). The […]

## Sleazy sock puppet can’t stop spamming our discussion of compressed sensing and promoting the work of Xiteng Liu

Some asshole who has a bug up his ass about compressed sensing is spamming our comments with a bunch of sock puppets. All from the same IP address: “George Stoneriver,” Scott Wolfe,” and just plain “Paul,” all saying pretty much the same thing in the same sort of broken English (except for Paul, whose post […]

## Revised statistical standards for evidence (comments to Val Johnson’s comments on our comments on Val’s comments on p-values)

As regular readers of this blog are aware, a few months ago Val Johnson published an article, “Revised standards for statistical evidence,” making a Bayesian argument that researchers and journals should use a p=0.005 publication threshold rather than the usual p=0.05. Christian Robert and I were unconvinced by Val’s reasoning and wrote a response, “Revised […]

## An open site for researchers to post and share papers

Alexander Grossman writes: We have launched a beta version of ScienceOpen in December at the occasion of the MRS Fall meeting in Boston. The participants of that conference, most of them were active researchers in physics, chemistry, and materials science, provided us with a very positive feedback. In particular they emphazised that it appears to […]

## Thinking of doing a list experiment? Here’s a list of reasons why you should think again

Someone wrote in: We are about to conduct a voting list experiment. We came across your comment recommending that each item be removed from the list. Would greatly appreciate it if you take a few minutes to spell out your recommendation in a little more detail. In particular: (a) Why are you “uneasy” about list […]

## A short questionnaire regarding the subjective assessment of evidence

E. J. Wagenmakers writes: Remember I briefly talked to you about the subjective assessment of evidence? Together with Richard Morey and myself, Annelies Bartlema created a short questionnaire that can be done online. There are five scenarios and it does not take more than 5 minutes to complete. So far we have collected responses from […]

## Ticket to Baaaaarf

A link from the comments here took me to the wonderfully named Barfblog and a report by Don Schaffner on some reporting. First, the background: A university in England issued a press release saying that “Food picked up just a few seconds after being dropped is less likely to contain bacteria than if it is […]

## Stan Model of the Week: Hierarchical Modeling of Supernovas

The Stan Model of the Week showcases research using Stan to push the limits of applied statistics. If you have a model that you would like to submit for a future post then send us an email. Our inaugural post comes from Nathan Sanders, a graduate student finishing up his thesis on astrophysics at Harvard. […]

## Ticket to Baaaath

Ooooooh, I never ever thought I’d have a legitimate excuse to tell this story, and now I do! The story took place many years ago, but first I have to tell you what made me think of it: Rasmus Bååth posted the following comment last month: On airplane tickets a Swedish “å” is written as […]

## On deck this week

Mon: Ticket to Baaaath Tues: Ticket to Baaaaarf Wed: Thinking of doing a list experiment? Here’s a list of reasons why you should think again Thurs: An open site for researchers to post and share papers Fri: Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Sat: Sleazy sock puppet can’t stop spamming our discussion of compressed […]

## Fooled by randomness

From 2006: Naseem Taleb‘s publisher sent me a copy of “Fooled by randomness: the hidden role of chance in life and the markets” to review. It’s an important topic, and the book is written in a charming style—I’ll try to respond in kind, with some miscellaneous comments. On the cover of the book is a […]

## Index or indicator variables

Someone who doesn’t want his name shared (for the perhaps reasonable reason that he’ll “one day not be confused, and would rather my confusion not live on online forever”) writes: I’m exploring HLMs and stan, using your book with Jennifer Hill as my field guide to this new territory. I think I have a generally […]

## One-tailed or two-tailed?

Someone writes: Suppose I have two groups of people, A and B, which differ on some characteristic of interest to me; and for each person I measure a single real-valued quantity X. I have a theory that group A has a higher mean value of X than group B. I test this theory by using […]

## If you get to the point of asking, just do it. But some difficulties do arise . . .

Nelson Villoria writes: I find the multilevel approach very useful for a problem I am dealing with, and I was wondering whether you could point me to some references about poolability tests for multilevel models. I am working with time series of cross sectional data and I want to test whether the data supports cross […]