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Don’t buy Bayesian Data Analysis . . .

. . . yet!

BDA3 is coming soon, and it’s bigger and badder than ever. It’s got Gaussian processes and weakly informative priors and HMC and VB and EP and Stan. It’s got all-new material on WAIC and several new chapters on nonparametrics. It’s got the birthday data!

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I’ll have some future posts with more information, but for now I’d just like to thank Hal Stern for helping to keep this project going, John Carlin for providing the stone that got this soup started, Don Rubin for intellectual inspiration, David Dunson for getting us moving on nonparametric Bayes, and Aki Vehtari for closing, getting the job done.

Thanks also to the Front Row All-Stars and Alex, Alex, and Vince for helping me think a lot of this through.

P.S. You can order the book here and there’s an ASA member 20% discount code AJL01, giving a price of $55.96. Standard shipping is free from that website and orders will be fulfilled as soon as the stock is in the warehouse, i.e. before Amazon even has copies.


  1. Manoel Galdino says:

    I have the second edition, but I’m definitely interested on the third edition. Hope that the price be affordable.

  2. Eugene Quinn says:

    Well I bought the second edition about a month ago, but no regrets – it’s worth much more than I paid for it. Looking forward to the third edition.

    • John Hall says:

      Similar situation, bought mine at the beginning of the year. I’ll probably wait a while before getting the third.

  3. Pablo Verde says:

    Congratulations! I remember taking my first course in BDA with the authors in the JSM-1998. I have been using the book for teaching (in the previous editions) since 2005. I am looking forward to this new edition!!


  4. dab says:

    I pre-ordered it a few weeks ago at the US site for $66.45. Amazon says it will list for $69, has 800 pages, and is due to be released on Nov 15.

    • Andrew says:

      I don’t know about the price, and I can’t say when the physical copies will come out (I hope it is before November!), but it will be approximately 675 pages, not 800. It’s reformatted so there’s more text per page than in the previous editions.

  5. Wayne says:

    I just pre-ordered from Amazon, and with their free shipping they claim I’ll have it on November 19. (Thanks for the tip, @dab.)

    Not sure how you achieved a higher TPP (text-per-page) than the second edition, but perhaps you used a Bayesian layout algorithm with tighter white-space priors? ;-) (And I hope it has section numbers at the top of each page, to make it easy to jump to a section. That’s my only gripe about the second edition.)

  6. me says:

    You posted about parallel coordinates earlier (but comments are closed there). On SIGMOD just this week in NYC, there is a 3d variant of it. Nothing spectacular, just a demo of the basic idea as a proof of concept.

  7. Peter Meilstrup says:

    Amazon is only listing the hardcover, will there be an electronic edition?

  8. Sam Clifford says:

    I’m really excited about this new version with Dunson and Vehtari. Glad to see there’ll be more NP Bayes in the book.

  9. […] PS: The 3rd edition of Gelman’s Bayesian Data Analysis is being released soon, with contributions from David Dunson and Aki […]

  10. Jason says:

    You guys are slackers. I pre-ordered my copy from Amazon on October 6, 2011.

    What do I win?

    • Andrew says:


      You win a free copy of Don’s book with Guido . . . whenever it appears!

    • Dan says:

      October? Please. My order was placed on May 18, 2011.

      It’s actually quite entertaining to get the “extended release date” emails from Amazon every few months. In fact, I just received one today that says my estimated arrival date is January 2014. November indeed! The fact that I’ve gone the past 2 years without a copy of BDA while still doing BDA tells me one thing: I do not need this book. But I’ve come too far to give up now.

      • Dan says:

        Just got notified from Amazon that the book should arrive in November now. Obviously a good sign, after 2 years of extensions!

  11. Doug says:

    Question: Have a background in stats from many moons ago. Steeped in some of the frequentist traditions, aware of / and have used MLE. Not a statistician by trade but want to be conversant with Bayesian methods, particularly hiearchical modeling, etc. Is your book or Kruschke’s the best place to start?

    • Rob says:

      Doug, I found that books such as Kruschke’s and Peter Hoff’s “A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods” were an easier introduction to Bayesian statistics than BDA because they have a gentler learning curve and also there is R code (and BUGS code for Kruschke’s text). (I like that Gelman and Hill’s ARM text has R code.) But I am certainly planning to get the new edition of BDA. IMHO, part of the value of BDA is that it introduces particular Bayesian topics which go beyond the introductory Bayesian textbooks. For example, I look forward to the treatment of the Expectation Propagation in BDA3; a proper understanding of this topic has so far eluded me.

      Also, have a look at this link.

      • Rob, regarding Expectation Proapagation, I found that the treatment given in a paper by Barthelme’ and Chopin (in the ABC framework) quite illuminating:

      • Doug says:

        Thanks, Rob — the StackExchange topic I had seen, but was just looking for external confirmation. :) Think I’ll start with Kruschke now, and then by the time I make it through I’ll be ready for the 2nd (or 6th?) printing of the 3rd edition of BDA.

  12. Antonio says:

    What about a new edition of Gelman and Hill ? :)

  13. Jennifer says:

    Does it contain any information / suggestions regarding Bayesian Network Modelling?
    If so I would be very interested :)

  14. Lorin says:

    Will there be an ebook version?

  15. D.O. says:

    Why the last graph doesn’t have December and January “bookending” the main graph? That was the idea worked out on this very blog.

  16. Wayne says:

    Bad news on the ordering front. I just got this email from Amazon on my pre-order:

    We’re writing about the order you placed on June 26, 2013. Unfortunately, the release date for the item(s) listed below has changed, and we need to provide you with a new delivery estimate based on the new release date:

    Gelman, Andrew “Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)”
    Estimated arrival date: December 30, 2013

  17. Chris G says:

    From Amazon earlier today:


    We’re writing about the order you placed on March 12, 2013 (Order# xxx-xxxxxxx-xxxxxxx). Unfortunately, the release date for the item(s) listed below has changed, and we need to provide you with a new delivery estimate based on the new release date:

    Andrew Gelman, et al “Bayesian Data Analysis, Third Edition (Chapman & Hall/CRC Texts in Statistical Science)”
    Estimated arrival date: January 02, 2014 – January 06, 2014

    We will make every effort to get the delayed item(s) to you as soon as possible…”

  18. Rob Calver says:

    Hello all

    I am writing on behalf of the publisher, Chapman & Hall/CRC. We are planning an expedited production schedule for the book, so are hoping to publish sometime in November. As soon as I receive the final manuscript from Andrew, the schedule will be nailed down and our website and Amazon will show the correct publication date.

    To order the book, you can visit and use the ASA member discount code AJL01 to receive a 20% discounted price of $55.96. Standard shipping is free from our website and orders will be fulfilled as soon as the stock is in the warehouse.

    Rob Calver
    Senior Acquisitions Editor, Statistics
    Chapman & Hall/CRC

    • No e-book version? I don’t like having to carry around paper books any more.

      Out of curiosity, where does the time go between Andrew sending you the manuscript and books being available? I thought he was sending you photo-ready copy and there wasn’t going to be a round of copy editing.

    • Anonymous says:

      I’d like an e-book version – preferably in kindle and google books formats. The last ebook edition was only available in e-book form as a Borders books (or maybe it was B&N) DRM pdf. I had to keep a copy of adobe’s crappy digital editions software on my computer just to read it.

    • Fernando says:

      I want ePub format.

      Moreover since I already own the previous edition, I’d like to buy an “upgrade”, not the full version.

      • Andrew says:

        Don’t worry, there’s more good stuff in this new edition than in other entire books!

        • Fernando says:

          I bet you it does not have live models. Watch this video:

          Print is obsolete.

          • Fernando says:

            I once did something similar for an online report. In the old days we simply had pictures and recordings for all possible parameterizations, so no actual processing was done in the browser…

            I doubt an iPad can run Stan but Stan could sit in the cloud. More generally, BDA could be more like software with patches for errata, updates, upgrades, chats, Stack Exchange support, associated MOOC, etc…

            You can push this really far.

            • Andrew says:


              I know what you’re saying but I think a book has something to offer as well. I find it useful to be able to flip back and forth and find things in physical space.

              Regarding the mook, we don’t yet have that. But I do have slides from when I last taught the class. I’m revising them to fit with the new edition and then will post them on the web to help others who will be teaching classes using the book.

              • Fernando says:

                Of course I agree with you. I am a book sniffer, and eBooks don’t have scent.

                But is nice to imagine new things.

    • Josh says:

      I agree with others. I won’t even buy physical books anymore. Bad for the environment and bad for my back. I work both from my home and my office. I’m not lugging physical books between the two. I also travel a lot, and refuse to carry a bag full of heavy books with me. Plus, I annotate my books and often look back at them after months or years. It’s great to always have them available in the cloud for reference wherever I am. With so many Bayesian books available now, I would easily buy a slightly inferior book if it was available in an ebook format over a superior book that was only available in physical form. If you want to do other versions please go ahead, but at least do a Kindle print replica version as the print replicas formats work well for technical books.

  19. Thanks for the heads up! I should get a copy of this.

  20. Chris G says:

    Amazon is now back to claiming late November delivery – stated window is 11/21-23.

  21. Anand says:

    What about an international low price edition? Currently, your book is out of the reach of most people in the developing world.