Mike Betancourt sends along this paper. Could be interesting, no? Note the heavy tail on the CDF in Figure 3, exhibiting weakened median time since 1999. And, as you can see from the bibliography, the work draws on a variety of sources:

Posted by Andrew on 8 January 2013, 4:28 pm

Mike Betancourt sends along this paper. Could be interesting, no? Note the heavy tail on the CDF in Figure 3, exhibiting weakened median time since 1999. And, as you can see from the bibliography, the work draws on a variety of sources:

## Recent Comments

- Keith O'Rourke on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Shravan Vasishth on You should (usually) log transform your positive data
- Shravan Vasishth on Multilevel structured (regression) and post-stratification
- Peter Gerdes on Conditional probability and police shootings
- Olav on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Anoneuoid on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Anoneuoid on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Nick Menzies on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- AllanC on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Anoneuoid on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- AllanC on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Daniel Lakeland on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Keith O'Rourke on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Andrew on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Keith O'Rourke on Multilevel structured (regression) and post-stratification
- Daniel Lakeland on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Daniel Lakeland on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model
- Keith O'Rourke on Yes, you can include prior information on quantities of interest, not just on parameters in your model

## Categories

Sadly, I read three paragraphs into the paper before realizing it was one of those auto-generated papers. Not sure if that’s a commentary on my intelligence or the terseness of some peer-reviewed publications.

Would there be some sort of statistical signature / pattern that a Markov Chain generated paper would leave behind?

Favourite part:

(2) we dogfooded our algorithm on our own desktop

machines, paying particular attention to NV-RAM speed; (3)

we dogfooded our system on our own desktop machines, …

that’s a nice little Markov chain their Perl script stumbled upon, eh?

Prof. Gelman:

Off topic, but it’d be interesting to have you comment on the statistics behind the “Lead Crime Correlation” business. e.g. Tyler Cowen’s post from just now.

Rahul:

I followed the link and the criticism of the lead studies looked pretty bad. Firestone seemed to just be going around looking for subsets of the data with statistically insignificant results. WIth a small sample size, not every comparison is going to be statistically significant. That does not represent evidence against the hypothesis of an effect.

Thanks! My gut feeling (not as a statistician) was that tht correlation will turn out spurious, but maybe not.

Al Gore, move over. Check out source [5].

[…] Rahul asked what I thought of this note by Scott Firestone (link from Tyler Cowen) criticizing a recent […]