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More on red/blue/rich/poor in 2008

After this, here’s more, again from exit poll crosstabs that Jared pulled off the CNN website:

Difference in McCain vote share, comparing people in each state with family incomes over and under $50,000 (thus, states that are high on this graph are those where richer people were much more Republican than poorer people):


The same graph, but for whites only (following Larry Bartels’s suggestion):


As before, the states are colored as red or blue where McCain or Obama won by more than 10% of the two-party vote, and purple for the states in between.

Lots of interesting patterns here.


  1. John says:

    It seems that in Mississippi and Louisiana especially the vote was more determined by race than by income within the state – at least that's how I interpret the differences between the graphs for those states. The difference was small amongst whites because they mostly voted for McCain regardless of income, but when you add in blacks, who are disproportionately lower income and voted overwhelmingly for Obama, the income-based differences become big. Simpson's Paradox!

  2. jrhs says:

    Interesting. A family with an income over $50,000 is defined to be rich?! How about a family with an income of $49,990? It would be interesting to see comparisons between, say, top 25% and bottom 25%.

  3. Andrew Gelman says:


    I did a broader income comparison in my earlier blog entry (see link above). Here I focused under/over $50K because this was the only division where they had the breakdown of white voters.