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Bayesian Combination of State Polls and Election Forecasts Red-blue on Wisconsin Public Radio

Tom Holbrook sez: chill out about the debates

Posted on September 22, 2008 8:49 PM by Andrew

Here.

This entry was posted in Political Science by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.
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  1. Anoneuoid on Essentialism!August 14, 2022 5:43 AM

    The industrial quality control refers to Neyman-Pearson's *hypothesis testing*, not NHST. There is also Fisher's *significance testing*, these approaches (although…

  2. bxg on Essentialism!August 14, 2022 4:51 AM

    > ...how NHST makes sense, but everyone uses it so they assume it must be working somehow. The math is…

  3. Howard Edwards on How to win the Sloan Sports hackathonAugust 13, 2022 6:53 PM

    “Some of the advice seems pretty ridiculous; for example one of the links promises “Five Easy Steps to Developer Victory”—which…

  4. Aki Vehtari on How to win the Sloan Sports hackathonAugust 13, 2022 4:10 PM

    Fixed

  5. Anoneuoid on Essentialism!August 13, 2022 2:25 PM

    failures to properly apply NHST logic I'm not sure we are in agreement. I claim there simply is no way…

  6. gec on Essentialism!August 13, 2022 12:31 PM

    > I do think there are conceptual issues that no one has figured out how to frame for many that…

  7. gec on Essentialism!August 13, 2022 11:37 AM

    > this is what people have come to expect from statistics I agree, and I think part of that can…

  8. paul alper on How to win the Sloan Sports hackathonAugust 13, 2022 10:32 AM

    Is this a typo? "Sten developer Daniel Lee writes:"

  9. somebody on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 13, 2022 8:22 AM

    “Peaked” as in local maximum, as in going up and then down again. And yes, economic recession can explain a…

  10. Keith O'Rourke on Essentialism!August 13, 2022 7:59 AM

    With regard to statistics as a subject, I do think there are conceptual issues that no one has figured out…

  11. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 13, 2022 7:53 AM

    Well it s true that (prior(u) * L1(u|x1)) * L2(u|x2) = prior(u) * (L1(u|x1) * L2(u|x2)) Written as just a…

  12. Anoneuoid on Essentialism!August 13, 2022 3:23 AM

    To be fair, this is what people have come to expect from statistics. No one has ever been able to…

  13. Clyde Schechter on Essentialism!August 12, 2022 7:07 PM

    Sure, 6-year olds are first-rate at forming cognitive categories. But I've raised three children, and currently have a 6 year…

  14. Joshua on Essentialism!August 12, 2022 5:30 PM

    > Have you ever met a pre-K child? That is literally all they talk and think about. Sorting things into…

  15. chipmunk on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 12, 2022 3:29 PM

    "The number of miles driven peaked in 2007," Not according to this data: https://alfred.stlouisfed.org/series?seid=TRFVOLUSM227SFWA#0 It shows miles driven fell during…

  16. gec on Essentialism!August 12, 2022 2:27 PM

    This reminds me of folks who say things like, "I'd love to teach Bayes, but there's no way that students…

  17. Phil on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 12, 2022 12:07 PM

    That's kinda gross. Doesn't the money get all soggy? I guess I'd rather be paid with saliva-covered money than not…

  18. Erik on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 12, 2022 10:50 AM

    That's true if each analysis is targeting the same draw from the prior. But I don't think it's true when…

  19. somebody on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 9:47 PM

    This is probably not relevant when a data analysis is a one-off. However, I think it is relevant in the…

  20. Erik on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 6:43 PM

    Hi Aki, I agree there's no free lunch. If the prior used to compute the posterior isn't the same as…

  21. Carlos Ungil on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 4:07 PM

    > _If they do_ the posterior provides an adequate sample of what would be repeatedly observed. Depends on what you…

  22. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 2:54 PM

    The true prior referred to in my comments is simply the one you have assumed. The comments are about the…

  23. Carlos Ungil on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 2:46 PM

    > Does what was learned not imply what would be repeatedly observed? I don’t know. I could make a prediction…

  24. name withheld by request on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 11, 2022 2:41 PM

    RE: "How do these people convince themselves that something that is rather unlikely is actually better than 50/50?" Most likely…

  25. Phil on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 11, 2022 2:33 PM

    I have a standard schtick in which, when someone claims something is "impossible" or "certain", I offer to bet on…

  26. Aki Vehtari on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 2:10 PM

    Hi Erik, Nice example! I like to comment on no free lunches, and that "robustifying" has a cost, too. In…

  27. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 1:44 PM

    > instead of what can be concluded from what was actually observed Does what was learned not imply what would…

  28. Carlos Ungil on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 12:56 PM

    > I think the primary focus of scientific statistical logic is to discern as best we can from a sample…

  29. chipmunk on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 11, 2022 11:49 AM

    In all of these cases Caplan is betting status quo where there's an extremely high probability that the status quo…

  30. Anoneuoid on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 11, 2022 11:43 AM

    I'd bet that at the end of Biden's presidency, the annual mean temperature is higher than 2021. This has so…

  31. Dylan on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 11, 2022 11:38 AM

    Small addendum: Caplan's perfect streak will almost certainly be broken by his ongoing global temp bet [1]. But that won't…

  32. Alan Goldhammer on Bets as forecasts, bets as probability assessment, difficulty of using bets in this wayAugust 11, 2022 11:24 AM

    To my knowledge Bryan Caplan has never stated how many bets he has turned down. 23 wins in 23 tries…

  33. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 11:22 AM

    Erik > This is probably not relevant when a data analysis is a one-off. I think the primary focus of…

  34. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 11:04 AM

    Daniel > Each data analysis needs its own prior. OK, but recall all the prior and likelihood need to be…

  35. Erik on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 9:03 AM

    Note that this is Andrew quoting me quoting Andrew! Frequentists consider the performance of their procedures under repeated sampling where…

  36. Daniel Lakeland on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 11, 2022 7:06 AM

    I just don't buy the part >it’s the set of problems for which a particular statistical model or procedure will…

  37. David in Tokyo on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 11, 2022 5:24 AM

    "I was involved in some traffic studies in our old neighborhood and they are not as straight forward as one…

  38. Anoneuoid on Just show me the data, baseball editionAugust 10, 2022 3:05 PM

    Yea, I saw that after. I looked closer at the dates because I first saw plate appearances corresponded to 1…

  39. Jack on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 10, 2022 3:04 PM

    While your point about unduly high ridership estimates is obviously valid, it's rather circular to slant a public transportation project…

  40. Victor on Stan downtown intern posters: scikit-stan & constraining transformsAugust 10, 2022 2:45 PM

    I'm assuming it's this one: https://github.com/WardBrian/scikit-stan

  41. Alan Goldhammer on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 10, 2022 2:39 PM

    Let's not forget that Ben Ross heads up a lobbying organization that has consistently supported one of the biggest white…

  42. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 10, 2022 1:35 PM

    Opps In general, organisms that don’t adequately represent their environment so that they hunt their prey and avoid their predators…

  43. Keith O'Rourke on Bayesian inference continues to completely solve the multiple comparisons problemAugust 10, 2022 11:39 AM

    I suspect there is a widespread fantasy and aching desire to not to have responsibility for the model assumptions adequately…

  44. Unanon on Just show me the data, baseball editionAugust 10, 2022 9:02 AM

    If you read the comment section of Jim Albert's blog post, this explanation (a change of the AL to NL…

  45. Daniel Lakeland on At last! Incontrovertible evidence (p=0.0001) that people over 40 are older, on average, than people under 40.August 9, 2022 11:01 PM

    If you're talking about the sample then I see what you mean, at that point it's just the probability that…

  46. John N-G on At last! Incontrovertible evidence (p=0.0001) that people over 40 are older, on average, than people under 40.August 9, 2022 3:30 PM

    But the average age of any group of n=0 persons is undefined. The average age of the below group is…

  47. Anoneuoid on Just show me the data, baseball editionAugust 9, 2022 1:39 PM

    Makes sense. So it is essentially shrinkflation using "health and safety" as an excuse. Actually the trash pickup by me…

  48. Jonathan Falk on Just show me the data, baseball editionAugust 9, 2022 12:48 PM

    he DH wasn't protective against COVID. It was nominally supposed to protect pitchers since spring training was so short in…

  49. Anoneuoid on Just show me the data, baseball editionAugust 9, 2022 12:42 PM

    Actually I think this makes a good causal inference example. We abduced an explanation, deduced the quantitative consequences of the…

  50. Anoneuoid on Just show me the data, baseball editionAugust 9, 2022 12:23 PM

    This DH practice for interleague games continued for seasons 1997 through 2021, although in 2020 the MLB allowed the use…

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