Skip to primary content

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science

Search

Main menu

Home
Authors
Blogs We Read
Sponsors

Post navigation

Traffic fines and retrospective and prospective decision analysis Question wording effects

Question wording effects

Posted on July 25, 2008 12:10 AM by Andrew

Get Dr. Kahneman on the line . . .

This entry was posted in Political Science by Andrew. Bookmark the permalink.

Art
Bayesian Statistics
Causal Inference
Decision Theory
Economics
Jobs
Literature
Miscellaneous Science
Miscellaneous Statistics
Multilevel Modeling
Papers
Political Science
Public Health
Sociology
Sports
Stan
Statistical computing
Statistical graphics
Teaching
Zombies

Anoneuoid on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 7, 2022 10:33 PM
Anoneuoid, Thank you. I don’t want to die any earlier than necessary. Well all I said is that by default…
Anoneuoid on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 2:30 PM
What if you had a bot choose what to say, but an actual human decides how to deliver it? Like…
somebody on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 11:57 AM
I see. Yeah, you could manually muck with the chatbot’s timings to make it look more human. The core transformer…
somebody on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 7, 2022 11:28 AM
https://usa.streetsblog.org/2022/04/19/why-you-should-never-sit-next-to-a-breakaway-post/
Anoneuoid on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 11:27 AM
The timestamp is relevant for the human interacting with the bot. If a financial advisor says buy, then a second…
gec on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 7, 2022 10:45 AM
I just love the concept of "pro-traffic activists". I assume that writing political boilerplate is usually just as tiresome as…
Matt Skaggs on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 7, 2022 10:38 AM
From the Hogan letter: “In advancing this project over the past six years, we have already had to overcome numerous…
Joshua on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 10:35 AM
BTW, as an aside: The most striking example of where I made wrongful assumptions about what's axiomatic for students, was…
Daniel Lakeland on I know it might sound strange but I believe you’ll be coming back before too longAugust 7, 2022 10:27 AM
I took a traffic engineering course at UC Davis during my CE undergrad. What I decided was it was entirely…
Joshua on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 7, 2022 10:26 AM
Anoneuoid - > I really doubt the people being referred to relied on a correlation = causation argument I'm not…
Joshua on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 10:16 AM
> After 45 years of teaching, I still can’t tell whether a student actually understands something. This is interesting. I…
Dale Lehman on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 9:11 AM
I also agree with the fundamentally uninteresting claim - but perhaps for different reasons. I don't expect computers to "understand"…
name withheld by request on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 8:38 AM
I completely agree with the “fundamentally uninteresting” characterization. There is no path by which a magician gets better and better…
Tamás K. Papp on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 8:34 AM
Modern appliances I have used (from the past 10 years or so) are actually pretty good at self-diagnostics. If they…
David in Tokyo on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 8:27 AM
One point about "financial advisors" is that it's been known for a long time that index funds are better than…
somebody on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 7:29 AM
There are no relevant timestamps. When you use GPT-3, you give it a prompt and it completes the text as…
somebody on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 7:25 AM
just providing the best response it can because its instructions are to answer the question, apparently not to ask questions…
Ellie Kesselman on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 7, 2022 1:47 AM
Anoneuoid, Thank you. I don't want to die any earlier than necessary.
Anoneuoid on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 7, 2022 12:52 AM
I really doubt the people being referred to relied on a correlation = causation argument when obviously many things changed…
Anoneuoid on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 7, 2022 12:29 AM
We need to see the timestamps. A human would know better than to say the opposite a few seconds later…
Anonymous on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 11:38 PM
"That’s very low-quality bullshitting " I get what you're thinking but I don't think your examples have been thought through…
Carlos Ungil on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 9:41 PM
That's very low quality bullshitting - repeating the same patterns and contradicting what was just said. I guess that the…
chipmunk on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 9:02 PM
Carlos: The same criticism as I offered to Andrew above: check in with the world outside of statistics PhDs, scientists…
chipmunk on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 8:55 PM
"Instead what the chatbot does is try to b.s. its way through..." Ha ha! that's just about as human as…
Carlos Ungil on Solution to that little problem to test your probability intuitions, and why I think it’s poorly statedAugust 6, 2022 6:11 PM
Bob76, while that's still the "wrong" calculation at least it's not wrong by orders of magnitude now - given the…
Howard Edwards on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 6:00 PM
“ The Brooklyn Dodgers example reminds me of those WW2 movies where they figure out who’s the German spy by…
Andrew on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 3:54 PM
Njo: For one thing, the Brooklyn Dodgers no longer exist so they're not gonna field any football team. More generally,…
Joahua on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 3:53 PM
> Well, neither one is a football team, That's a uniquely American viewpoint.
Dale Lehman on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 3:53 PM
I concur. I think we commonly overestimate the human ability to be sensible. While the brain is an amazing thing…
name withheld by request on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 3:03 PM
Carlos, That exchange could almost pass for a randomly overhead conversation between a "financial advisor" and his client in the…
Carlos Ungil on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 3:03 PM
Not only it doesn't show much intellegence - it also seems to lack a minimum of memory and coherence. Reminds…
Carlos Ungil on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 2:56 PM
The following exhange is great! If telephone numbers continue to increase - whatever that means - it may be a…
njo on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 2:48 PM
They have trouble with unusual situations: Human: Who do you predict would win today if the Brooklyn Dodgers played a…
Dale Lehman on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 11:57 AM
I tend to agree. For repairing something I may "only" care about what works, but it is rarely that clear.…
Joshua on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 6, 2022 11:22 AM
Anoneuoid - > What are the reasons they believe this one is exceptional? Seriously? Reasoning from personal incredulity can be…
Joshua on From chatbots and understanding to appliance repair and statistical practiceAugust 6, 2022 10:40 AM
> Trying things without fully understanding them, just caring about what works: this strategy makes a lot of sense. Sure,…
Anoneuoid on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 6, 2022 8:26 AM
it will play out like similar viruses. By that I mean everyone will get it every year or two, and…
Anoneuoid on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 6, 2022 8:09 AM
Instead, I want to ask you and Daniel whether you concur with the grim prognosis of endemic COVID as described…
Aki Vehtari on Stan downtown intern posters: scikit-stan & constraining transformsAugust 6, 2022 6:37 AM
Is there a git repo for the scikit-stan? I googled but found a scikit-stan repo last updated 2.5 years ago,…
Ellie Kesselman on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 6, 2022 5:52 AM
In February 2021, a U.S. medical school professor of nephrology (who is also a clinician) as well as two non-physician…
Daniel Hadas on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 6, 2022 4:22 AM
Hi, Joshua. I think the reifying of "Long Covid" is a mistake, but I'll leave that aside for the sake…
Yuling Yao on Solution to that little problem to test your probability intuitions, and why I think it’s poorly statedAugust 5, 2022 6:57 PM
My understanding is that we can almost always solve these 2 by 2 table quizzes by a logistics regression, and…
Andrew on Solution to that little problem to test your probability intuitions, and why I think it’s poorly statedAugust 5, 2022 6:34 PM
Yuling: Yes, I agree the solution is very direct when you multiply likelihood ratios. To me, the likelihood ratio or…
Yuling on Solution to that little problem to test your probability intuitions, and why I think it’s poorly statedAugust 5, 2022 6:25 PM
Perhaps another "intuitive" solution: "prior" of the odds: p/1-p; "posterior" of odds given test A: 0.7/0.3, hence the "likelihood" of…
dl on Still more on the Heckman Curve!August 5, 2022 5:32 PM
not sure it's even sarcasm. maybe exaggeration.
Andrew on Stan downtown intern posters: scikit-stan & constraining transformsAugust 5, 2022 3:34 PM
Bob: This is great! Just one thing: why do you say they don’t make undergrads like they used to? Undergrads…
Anoneuoid on Does having kids really protect you from serious COVID‑19 symptoms?August 5, 2022 1:00 PM
Yea, I don't get the "herd immunity" discussion. Just like every other respiratory virus, you get temporary mucosal immunity that…
Andrew on Did Chinese laborers on the Yangtze pay someone to whip them? Why can’t political scientists and economists resist telling this evidence-free story? And why do they keep embellishing it?August 5, 2022 11:14 AM
Anon: Yeah, they had no comment on how a goofy question from a set of practice exam questions made it…
Anonymous on Did Chinese laborers on the Yangtze pay someone to whip them? Why can’t political scientists and economists resist telling this evidence-free story? And why do they keep embellishing it?August 5, 2022 10:29 AM
Update on the Kaur, Kremer, and Mullainathan paper: they have now published an erratum: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/abs/10.1086/721271 The correction is on the…
In the provinces on What can $100,000 get you nowadays? (Discussion of the market for papers in economics.)August 5, 2022 10:11 AM
You cannot ever bribe or twist The freeborn British journalist Seeing what, unbribed, he'll do You realize there's no reason…

Proudly powered by WordPress